Thursday, February 4, 2016

Lingering posts about the Iowa Caucus

I've let these pile up. It's past time to post them and move on.

- Donald Trump Got a Huge Number of Votes in Iowa. Imagine If He’d Actually Run a Campaign. It's true that Trump lost. But apparently he had next to no ground game and though a presence on social media was enough to win. This allowed Cruz - who mobilized the religious right and developed mart voter targeting mechanisms - to edge him out. Trump still got more votes than the past two winners of the caucus.

- How Ted Cruz Engineered His Iowa Triumph. A great inside look at how a well run campaign operates. And Cruz does seem to take campaigning seriously. It involves sophisticated statistical modeling. Much

- Some Iowa Caucus Precincts Flipped a Coin to Determine the Democratic Winner. There were reports that coin tosses to break ties between the two Democrats. Here's detail on the process. For our purposes, it might be wise to point out that sometimes every vote does count. NPR argues that the coin flips did not win the caucus for her.

- What We Learned in Iowa: Maybe the GOP contest isn’t really about the establishment and outsiders. More on Cruz's ground game.

- How Ted Cruz outfoxed Donald Trump in Iowa. And even more - this could be an indication of the road ahead, but commentators caution that primary states are more difficult to mobilize than caucus states.

- Cruz Won Iowa Because of Evangelicals, Would Lose General Election For Same Reason. Much of the mobilization by the Cruz campaign involved his support by evangelical voters. Cruz focused his messages to that group to win the caucus, but the author points out that the evangelical vote is a far smaller component of the general electorate. Today's appeal might work against him later.

- Iowa Caucus entrance poll results. An in-depth look at the data that tells which candidate won which group in Iowa and by how much.