Monday, October 17, 2016

From the Washington Post: And now, some legitimately good news for Republicans

Trump's low numbers may not have the down ballot effect some have predicted.

- Click here for the article.

The nightmare scenario for Republicans has long been that Donald Trump would crash and burn, and drag every other Republican on the ballot down with him.
The first part of that could very well be happening. The second half? Perhaps not.
Of the four high-quality mainstream media polls conducted since that "Access Hollywood" video emerged, Trump has trailed by 11 points, 9 points, 7 points and 4 points. And even that last, closest poll, from The Washington Post and ABC News on Sunday, includes some big red flags for Trump.
But those same polls don't suggest doom and gloom for downballot Republicans just yet. And in fact, there's real reason for GOP optimism that Trump won't ruin their year completely.
For one, the so-called generic ballot -- i.e., whether people prefer a generic Democrat for Congress or a generic Republican -- still only favors Democrats by a small margin: 3 points in both the Post-ABC poll and NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll, among likely voters. That same Democratic edge on the generic ballot is actually down from 6 points in last week's NBC-WSJ poll.
Put plainly, these generic ballots are unremarkable and don't suggest a big Democratic wave ahead.
Part of the reason Trump's woes might not have filtered downballot could be that a strong majority of people don't really associate Republicans with their party's presidential nominee. And many people also appear to dislike Clinton enough that they like the idea of a Congress that could keep her in check.
The Post-ABC poll includes a question about whether people think Trump represents the "core values" of the Republican Party, and a strong majority of likely voters say he doesn't -- 57 percent overall.

For a timeline of generic poll results, click here.

No comments:

Post a Comment