Texas Tribune: Beto O’Rourke confronts a formidable GOP firewall as he woos rural Texans

For our look at electoral conflict within Texas. 186 of Texas' 254 counties are considered rural, meaning they have populations of less than 50,000.

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In 2018, Beto O’Rourke put more work into campaigning in rural Texas than perhaps any statewide Democratic candidate ever has. He visited all 254 counties, campaigning in far-flung communities where many had not seen a Democrat running for senator in their entire lifetime.

Still, he lost rural Texas by the same kind of landslide that met Democrats who came before him. O’Rourke lost to U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz statewide by 3 percentage points, but the margin was 51 points in counties with fewer than 50,000 people — virtually the same deficit Hillary Clinton had against Donald Trump in those counties two years later.

Despite its dwindling population, rural Texas remains a stubborn firewall that has consistently delivered GOP statewide victories, even as Democratic support grows in the state’s populous metro centers and suburbs, and even when up against a unique Democratic talent like O’Rourke.

“Even for two years, it’s a world of change,” said Stuart Williams, a former Lubbock County Democratic party chair who worked for O’Rourke’s campaign in 2018. “He’s leaned into it a lot better this time. The messaging is a lot more targeted. … He’s not as green as he was before.”

Democrats have long argued they do not need to win rural Texas, just narrow their margins by at least a few percentage points to prevail statewide. O’Rourke’s 2018 campaign brought that theory into focus: While he ran up the score in the cities and blazed new territory for his party in the suburbs, he captured only 24% of voters in counties with a population of less than 50,000, a percentage point better than Clinton.

- Definitions of “Rural” in Texas Statutesand the Texas Administrative Codeas of April 2018.