Peggy Noonan, Reagan's speechwriter, adds her voice to the chorus claiming that Bush Administration policies are tearing apart the Republican coalition.
In a two party system, parties are only competitive if they bring various factions together under their umbrella. The Democrats did it under FDR. It was called the New Deal Coalition and it dominated politics for three or four decades. The loss of key elements of that coalition to the Republicans led to the formation of the Reagan Coalition which became dominant thereafter. Groups that had become predictable Republican supporters (such as libertarians) are becoming more independent, if not outright supporters of Democrats.
Karl Rove apparently disagrees with this assessment and predicts that the future still looks bright for his party. The proliferation of internet businesses will lead those business owners into the Republican pro-business, low taxes camp. And more Americans claim to be religiously evangelical, and they tend ot vote Republican.
A recent book outlines Roves efforts to continue adding to the Republican rolls. Three specific policies were designed to peel away groups that continued to vote for Democrats. Pro-Israel policies were meant to lure Jews, anti-gay rights policies were focused on evangelical African Americans, and anti-abortion and stem cell policies were intended to attract the support of Catholics.
Critics argue that the continued expansion of government (No Child Left Behind and Medicare), corruption and bungled efforts in Iraq and in the follow up to Katrina have undermined these efforts. Evangelicals also seem suspicious that Republicans talk the talk but do not follow up with actions that back up the talk.
This is worth monitoring.
