Future Indicator?

The Washington Post reports on the Democratic victory in a special election for a seat in the U.S. House. Two things are worth noting: the seat had been held by a Republican--the district is dominated by Republicans--and the Republicans had used a strategy against the Democrat that they hoped to use in November if necessary. They tied him closely with Obama, whom he supports, and hoped to use recent controversies involving Obama against the House candidate.

It didn't work:

Democrats said the result in the Baton Rouge-based district showed that an anti-Obama campaign has its limits and that they are poised for very large gains this fall.

"These Republicans can run, but they cannot hide. Our candidates have proven that they are competitive, that they are viable. This is clearly adding up to a very bad year for Republicans," said Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Cazayoux's victory followed that in March of Bill Foster, a Democrat who won the seat of former House speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) in a special election. Hastert had easily won reelection since 1986 before his retirement in November.

Coincidentally, the House seat Cazayoux won yesterday was also previously held by a Republican first elected to office in 1986. Richard H. Baker resigned in February to become a hedge-fund lobbyist.

With a poorly funded candidate in Jenkins, the National Republican Congressional Committee and conservative groups poured about $1 million into an advertising campaign that in the final weeks focused on linking Cazayoux to Obama and Pelosi. The ads accused Cazayoux of supporting Obama's "big government scheme" on health care and his "radical agenda" on other issues.

GOP strategists considered the Cazayoux-Jenkins race a test run of the emerging strategy to pin Obama to many House Democratic candidates, thinking that his liberal voting record and recent controversies involving statements by his former pastor make him a drag on down-ballot Democrats.

Republicans privately bemoaned Jenkins leading up to yesterday's race because he has been a divisive figure in local politics for decades. Officially, House Republicans vowed to continue attacking Democrats and attempting to paint them into a corner with Obama and Pelosi.

"When Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi were introduced into this campaign, Don Cazayoux was leading by a large margin in the polls and Republicans substantially closed that gap. This election speaks to the potential toxicity of an Obama candidacy and the possible drag he could have down-ballot this fall," NRCC spokesman Ken Spain said.