The National Center for Policy Analysis sums up a Wall Street Journal Opinion piece wondering why we are so glum:
A cultural rut of pessimism is draining our collective energy, blinding
us to possibilities and eroding our position in the world, says Zachary
Karabell, president of River Twice Research.
There is no denying that the current financial morass is deep and
painful. But, looking back over the past century, it would be a
stretch to rank the current problems as especially notable or dramatic:
o Right now we have an unemployment rate of 5 percent and
headline inflation topping 4 percent.
o We have economic growth of 0.6 percent, extremely low
consumer confidence and weakening consumer spending, small
business optimism at a 28-year low, and a housing market that
is showing declines in excess of 20 percent.
These are hardly statistics to celebrate, but they are a far cry from
the crises of the 20th century, says Karabell:
o The unemployment rate in 1933 was 24.9 percent; seven years
later, after the intensive efforts of the New Deal, it stood
at 14.6 percent.
o The unemployment rate went from 4.9 percent in 1973 to 8.5
percent in 1977, and then nearly broke 10 percent in 1982.
o While the recent collapse of Bear Stearns shocked Wall
Street, in 1933 alone 4,000 banks failed, and millions not
only lost their homes but were rendered homeless.
The path to a more balanced view of ourselves is impossible to chart,
but the first step is surely to have better perspective on where we are
and where we have been. The alternative to grime-encrusted lenses
isn't rose-tinted glasses, but more equanimity about our weaknesses and
our strengths would surely help us navigate.
Unfortunately, the problem with downward spirals is, well, that they
spiral downward. There is little evidence just now that we are
about to break this cycle, and until we do, we will watch in awe, envy
and fear as peoples throughout the world do what we used to do so well,
says Karabell.
One possible answer is that American do not base assessments on their well being and expectations on objective measures of well being, but on relative measures. How well of are we today versus where we thought we would be 5 and 10 years ago? Even objective measure suggest that the middle has lost ground over the past 10 years--median family income has declined slightly, so perhaps Karabell should broaden his analysis. But is is still worth pondering whether we really have cause to be negative about our current state of affairs.
