It's not too early to begin discussing the 2012 elections -- which is disappointing news for sane people. An early poll points outs a predictable shift in levels of enthusiasm based on partisanship. I say predictable because now that Republicans control the House, and are safe bets to take over the Senate in 2012, Democrats who sat out the midterms, see a reason to participate now.
From Public Policy Polling:
If I had to name the two biggest factors that cost Democrats the 2010 election cycle it would be 2 e's- economy and enthusiasm. A huge part of the party's problem was the bad economy, which drove independent voters strongly toward GOP candidates. But just as important was the enthusiasm gap and the fact that Republicans turned out at a much higher rate than Democrats in almost every state in the country.
I don't know where the economy's going to be 22 months from now but our newest weekly national survey for Daily Kos finds that the enthusiasm problem for Democrats is likely to be quickly a thing of the past.
85% of Democrats in the country are either 'very excited' or 'somewhat excited' about voting in the Presidential election next year, actually slightly higher than the 82% of Republicans. There are more Republicans who are 'very excited'- 62% to the Democrats' 57%, but 'somewhat excited' voters are going to come out the vast majority of the time. The ones you need to worry about are the 'not excited' voters- and 18% of Republicans and 16% of Democrats fall into that category, virtually indistinguishable.
One danger the Republican Party could fall into is if they ignore the Tea Party members to the point that see no reason to continue to identify with the party, and possibly punish the party by running an independent candidate.
