Tuesday, April 5, 2011

How will the Texas electorate respond in 2012 to cuts in education?

Jason Embry wonders:

Lawmakers made deep cuts across state government because the state faces a huge budget shortfall caused by a variety of factors, some of them outside state lawmakers' control and some a result of their decisions. The House's decision to leave more than $6 billion sitting in the state's rainy day fund added to the severity of the cuts.

That a majority of lawmakers supported such reductions shows that they think voters, first and foremost, want them to cut spending and fight tax increases.

It's the logical conclusion to draw from the 2010 elections. Republicans in Texas and across the country didn't beat Democrats because they promised to do the most for public education. The national Republican wave that swept into Texas was driven by voter anxiety about high unemployment and the Obama administration's spending habits.

It's also important to remember that most legislators, because districts aren't usually meant to be competitive between the parties, only have to worry about winning their primaries. A reasonable legislator could easily conclude that Republican primary voters will applaud a budget that cuts overall spending by $23 billion.

But electorates can change, and teachers and parents who don't usually vote in the Republican primary could decide that 2012 is the time to get engaged. Furthermore, a number of new Republican legislators represent districts that were held by Democrats just five months ago. Some in the GOP will be able to draw districts that protect them from Democratic challengers next year, but others won't be able to, and they will face general-election opponents who will loudly proclaim that schools got shortchanged.