Republican leaders are attempting to persuade their rank and file - and mostly Tea Party affiliated - members to vote for an increase in the debt ceiling, despite reservations:
As top Republicans face delicate and difficult negotiations with the White House, they are beginning a concerted effort to prepare newer members of the Republican conference to vote in favor of raising the ceiling. This coming week's most difficult task, some Republicans believe, will be getting their own freshman class to a yes vote.
The hurdles House Speaker John Boehner, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and their respective leadership teams face are formidable. The vast majority of new members, coupled with hard-core conservative veterans like Sen. Jim DeMint, began the year indicating there was no way they could vote to raise the debt ceiling. Some even believe there won't be consequences if a deal isn't reached by August 2.
Slowly, senior Republicans have been walking their newer colleagues off that position. Boehner, McConnell and the rest know what will happen if Republicans and Democrats cannot work out a deal; what's more, they believe voters will ultimately blame them for obstruction, rather than Democrats. "The leadership uniformally understands the need to reach some kind of agreement that will avoid default," said a senior House Republican aide.For 2302, this illustrates the role of the party leadership and the tension that is common between them and the rank and file members. For both 2301 and 2302 it illustrates one of the problematic consequences Republicans face as a consequence of the 2010 elections. With greater numbers, come increased internal divisions and greater difficulty keeping everyone together.
This is compounded by the increased connections House members have with folks in their home districts - or their electoral constituencies - who want them to toe the line. Tea Party members who might be interested in voting for the increase might face threats that doing so will lead to a competitor in the Republican primary. Almost certainly a great deal of the conversations that are taking place have to do with how the leadership can provide these people electoral cover.
Democrats have historically had greater problems keeping their troops together, than Republicans, but this seems to be changing.
