Wednesday, April 11, 2012

The Politics of Tax Reform

Bruce Bartlett explains - among other things - why its tough getting rid of tax exemptions:

Both 2301 and 2302s should consider this in light of the problems public opinion presents for bringing budgets into balance. We liek low taxes and high spending:

Politicians hide behind grandiose plans for wiping the slate clean because they know that support for every specific tax expenditure is very high. In practice, saying that one would eliminate all tax expenditures is meaningless, nothing more than a gesture that avoids confrontation with the constituencies supporting tax expenditures.

Perhaps the worst offender, in this regard, is Paul D. Ryan, Republican of Wisconsin and chairman of the House Budget Committee, who promises a sharp reduction in tax rates while still balancing the budget. He says that his tax cuts, which would reduce revenues by $10 trillion over the next decade over current law, according to the Tax Policy Center, would be paid for with base-broadening and loophole-closing.

But Mr. Ryan steadfastly refuses to name a single loophole that he would eliminate; he ordered the Congressional Budget Office to assume that federal revenues would rise to 19 percent of gross domestic product from 15.5 percent by 2030 under his plan.

Mr. Ryan’s political calculation is simple. He knows that taking away the tax exclusion for employer-provided health insurance would greatly increase its cost and probably cause most businesses to drop coverage; repealing the mortgage-interest deduction would raise the cost of housing for homeowners and would very likely cause a further drop in home prices; abolishing the charitable-contributions deduction would decimate churches, universities, museums and every other tax-exempt organization; and rescinding the deduction for state and local taxes would vastly raise the tax burden in most states.

Mr. Ryan knows perfectly well that the most popular tax expenditures will never be repealed but pretends that they all will in order to make his phony-baloney numbers add up. The fact is that the vast bulk of tax expenditures, in dollar terms, are immensely popular and deeply imbedded in the economy and society.