- Click here for his Wikipedia Page.
- And here for the Cook Political Report.
In this analysis he breaks the Republican Party into four distinct factions and uses it to analyze the upcoming race for the Republican nomination. He calls them brackets sine the NCAA tournament is going on. Here they are:
- the Establishment bracket
- the Secular/Conventional Conservative bracket
- the Tea Party/Populist Conservative bracket
- the Social, Cultural, and Evangelical Conservative bracket
Earlier this semester I posted a graphic - click here to get it - that described the factions as a five ring circus. The rings are:
- Moderate
- Establishment
- Christian Conservative
- Libertarian
- Tea Party
Obviously there is disagreement about what the precise nature of these factions are. I'll post something similar about factions in the Democratic Party when I find it. I mentioned in class that when we discuss parties in a winner take all system, we need to understand the competition that exists between the faction. Each fights to have one of their own emerge as the party's nominee.
Here's a bit from Cook's article (note that he does not discount Cruz's competitiveness):
Scott Walker still has a solid lead in the Secular/Conventional Conservative bracket. (This bracket would also include Texas Gov. Rick Perry, former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, and Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, if they run.)
In the Social, Cultural, and Evangelical bracket, the contestants are Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal. The important thing to understand about this bracket is that it's generally a dead end. . . .
Maybe the biggest recent development has been in the Tea Party/Populist bracket. Rand Paul was the early leader here, but Ted Cruz's impressive performance in his announcement speech at Liberty University elevates him to running even with Paul. Cruz's stock was probably undervalued early on, as few seemed to appreciate his impressive intellect and communications skills. (He wasn't a championship debater in college for nothing.) . . .
The Establishment bracket consists of Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, and former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina. (Sen. Lindsey Graham and former New York Gov. George Pataki will be in this bracket, too—if they manage to put together viable campaigns.) Bush remains the unquestioned leader, but if the conventional wisdom is wrong anywhere (and I admit to being very conventional most of the time), it might be in underestimating Rubio's potential.
