But now that rule will prevent candidates other than Trump to be considered for the nomination, which means opponents of Trump will need to change it prior to the convention.
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What impact could Rule 40(b) have on the 2016 Republican National Convention?
At the Republican National Convention in July 2016, the Rules Committee of the Republican Party will craft a set of rules for the convention. The committee will have the option to replace Rule 40(b), remove it, adopt with it modifications, or adopt it unchanged before the nominating ballot is officially set in stone. Rule 40(b) is, in fact, part of what are called "Temporary Rules," which, according to Rule 42, "constitute the Standing Rules" for the convention at which they were adopted and the "temporary rules" for the next convention. [5] As Curly Haugland, a member of the Rules Committee from North Dakota, explained to Politico in March 2016, “rules aren’t fixed until the convention.”[9] The two possible scenarios that could unfold in Cleveland are discussed in more detail below:
Scenario 1: The Rules Committee adopts the 2012 version of Rule 40(b) unchanged, thereby requiring a candidate for the Republican nomination to demonstrate the support of a majority of delegates in no less than eight individual states in order to have his name on the nominating ballot at the convention. If this is the scenario that unfolds in Cleveland, it is possible that no candidate except for Donald Trump will be eligible to be considered for the Republication nomination for president, because Rule 16.2(a) requires bound delegates to support the eligibility of the candidate to whom they are bound. As of March 24, 2016, Trump had won the majority of bound delegates in more than eight states in primary election contests and caucuses.
Scenario 2: The Rules Committee replaces or modifies Rule 40(b). The committee could lower the threshold or it could raise it. It could also replace “majority” with “plurality.” Or—a third option—it could remove the rule altogether. In March 2016, Ben Ginsberg, a former RNC lawyer who helped write Rule 40(b) in Tampa, noted that changes to the rule were certainly possible at the 2016 convention. He told MSNBC, "each convention has to pass for itself the number of states that put a candidate's name in nomination.” In regards to the state threshold, he noted, “The 2016 convention can make that number one, eight, 18, 28 or 58, if it wishes.”[9] The Rules Committee, then, could remove or modify the rule to make it easier for other candidates to have their names placed on the ballot. On the other hand, the committee could also make it even more difficult.
