Saturday, May 2, 2009

Experts Weigh in on the Future of the GOP

NYT's Weekend Opinionator has a terrific summary of the various arguments, from the left to the right, about what the Specter defection means for the Republican Party's future. Should it moderate its positions in order to broaden its tent, which risks loosening it from its ideological moorings, or purify itself by pushing moderates out of the party, which risks making it uncompetitive. That's quite the dilemma. I'm fascinated with how the party figures this things out and what mechanisms drive the process.

Here's an interesting quote:

. . . Persuasion becomes virtually impossible when the target audience doesn’t see the need for even having the discussion. There may not be enough of an effort by critics of the mainstream from “reform” and dissident conservative perspectives to appeal to the persuadable, but one of the reasons why “the conservative rump” is in its current predicament is that it long ago stopped making any effort at persuasion in relating to the rest of the country, insisted on reiterating its greatest hits and expecting the country to follow. Persuadable, non-ideological voters were lost for lack of seriously trying to secure them as reliable supporters. Suburban voters were driven away by the combination of Iraq, general incompetence and perceived ideological rigidity. In addition to being an awful propaganda line for the war, “stay the course” became a large part of the GOP’s unimaginative electoral strategy as well. Nowadays, if they acknowledge mistakes at all, mainstream conservatives are keen to pin responsibility on anyone but themselves while tarring anyone who points out the obvious errors of the last decade as treacherous or some crypto-liberal eager to score points with the media. Some of these people may exist, but the presumption that every critical voice falls into this category is evidence of intellectual exhaustion and insecurity.

I take it that the author is concerned that the Republican Party leadership wants to limit itself to arguments within a small group of insiders, and ignore the interests of non-ideological moderates who might potentially be supporters of the party because they agree with their positions on issues. My hunch is that an old guard has taken hold within the party and refuses to give up control. A a purge of sorts has to take place in order to allow the party to respond to shifts in the broader population. This will take time, but it will happen at some point. You can't live forever.