Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Can Democrats Flip King and Christie?

I have no idea if this is possible, but the House Republican votes against relief for Hurricane Sandy - which were driven by the Tea Party (or southern) faction of the party, has caused two prominent national Republicans to be very critical of their party.

This reminds me of the criticism southern Democrats heaped upon the national Democratic Party beginning in the late 1940s when they started flirting with civil rights legislation. Ultimately they would flip over to the Republican Party - which became more amenable to them by reversing its positions on race issues as well - from being in favor to being opposed.

Are we seeing the reverse of this occurring now? If so, it would be part of a continuum. Southern Democrats flip to the Republican Party, but slowly take it over. Northeastern Republicans become more marginalized and begin feeling more isolated within the party. Recall that liberal Republicans (the Rockefeller Republicans) have already flipped. Might the moderates follow? I do not know if Peter King and Chris Christie qualify as moderates, but southern hostility to all aspects of federal power - save defense - are jeopardizing their constituents well-being.

If I'm a Democrat in New York or New Jersey (and especially if I'm Obama), I'm going to try to flip them. For King it means going from the majority to the minority, so there's little sense in that right now - unless he feels his very position in Congress is threatened. Christie might find himself more popular if he holds onto Republican support and then adds the Democrats.

Again, this is just a thought experiment - but party ID has been shifting considerable along regional lines. What happening here seems just another part of that shift. If it does happen, I can't see this being healthy for the Republican future. A party can't win if it is only the party of the South.

- Peter King: I'm 'over' the GOP.