From Roll Call: Why Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death is unlikely to shake up the presidential race

People have mace up their minds already who to vote for.

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While Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death will go down as yet another historic event in 2020, it’s unlikely to change the fundamental trajectory of the elections.

In the middle of huge breaking news stories, it can be hard to remember that the country is incredibly polarized and the race between President Donald Trump and former vice president Joe Biden has been remarkably stable.

After a series of other historic events — impeachment, a global pandemic, an economic crisis, the national conversation about racism and high-profile instances of violent protests — Biden’s 7-point national advantage is about the same as it was six months ago, according to Inside Elections’ latest Presidential Snapshot in Time series.

That means when it comes to analyzing the electoral impact of events, it’s best to assume that nothing matters until proved otherwise. It’s a difference between historic events and political game-changers.