A Republican Split?

Here's a useful post I'll rip off in full. From the TimeOnline's Daniel Finkelstein:

This was an important political moment.

Forget the Presidential election for a second. This was, politically, more important than that.

David Brooks captured it brilliantly in the New York Times. In an angry piece entitled "Revolt of the Nihilists", Brooks lays into Nancy Pelosi for using this hour of peril to make a Democratic fundraising speech.

But most of all he lays into conservative Republicans:

Now they have once again confused talk radio with reality. If this economy slides, they will go down in history as the Smoot-Hawleys of the 21st century. With this vote, they’ve taken responsibility for this economy, and they will be held accountable. The short-term blows will fall on John McCain, the long-term stress on the existence of the G.O.P. as we know it.

Might this event begin to split the Republican party? The banking and establishment Republicans together with the moderates and reformers might go one way, with the populist, talk radio base going the other way.

Impending defeat (in Congressional elections at a minimum) means that the coming years will be difficult for the party and see a hard fight over its future. The vote last night shows that the conservative base does not easily come to heel. And has a real constituency.

So could last night see the end for the GOP?

This happened to the Democrats in the late 1960s when the south began to split from the rest of the party. Republicans are not immune from a similar fate.

On Social Conservatism

Could we be witnessing the end of a movement? Has social conservatism played itself out? This author not only claims it has, but points to a specific time, 1am March 21, 2005--when President Bush signed a law (alter to be overturned) preventing Terri Schiavo's live support form being turned off:

Terri Schiavo was allowed to die. And in opinion poll after opinion poll most Americans felt, with sadness but with conviction as well, that the courts had been right.

And something stirred. Americans are deeply religious but they are also deeply attached to the idea that folks can get on with their lives unmolested by government. When the two clashed, freedom won. The Strange Death of Social Conservatism as the driving force in US politics was under way. 2006 confirmed it: a thumping, the President called it, as the midterm election results returned Democrats to power in Congress, delivered the first-ever defeat to a state ballot initiative that would have banned gay marriage (in Arizona) and approved state funding of stem-cell research in, of all places, Missouri.

Nothing the voters decide this November will change this dynamic. Not even the fantastic Mrs Palin - the Iron Lady of Alaska - who is on the Republican ticket to serve a purpose but not, frankly, to serve in office. Mrs Palin's views are certainly of the hard-line Religious Right but the party is not intending that they become policy and the party would be destroyed if they did.

The idea (which Mrs Palin backs) that abortion should be illegal even in cases of rape and incest was tried out on the people of South Dakota recently. South Dakota is no friend of abortion but even these conservative voters nixed the plan.

No, America is changing and a new era is beginning: a post-Reagan era in which social conservatism (galvanising Republicans and terrifying Democrats) is replaced as the driving force in US politics by...

Well, we don't know.

Opinions on the Bailout

I'll slowly start posting links regarding the various aspects of the recent financial crisis. Here is a collection of opinions of economists on the proposed bailout--the one nixed by the house on Monday.

The End of American Dominance?

That seems to be the conclusion some global commentators are making following the recent financial nosedive. And it fits a pattern:

The fate of empires is very often sealed by the interaction of war and debt. That was true of the British Empire, whose finances deteriorated from the First World War onwards, and of the Soviet Union. Defeat in Afghanistan and the economic burden of trying to respond to Reagan's technically flawed but politically extremely effective Star Wars programme were vital factors in triggering the Soviet collapse. Despite its insistent exceptionalism, America is no different. The Iraq War and the credit bubble have fatally undermined America's economic primacy. The US will continue to be the world's largest economy for a while longer, but it will be the new rising powers that, once the crisis is over, buy up what remains intact in the wreckage of America's financial system.

Catching Up

Funny that the world didn't stop while we were recovering from the storm. There was a presidential debate and, oh yes, we came close to a financial meltdown.

I'll catch up on recent events slowly.

Now its Monday

Classes are set to start back up Monday. This is a good thing because as of today we still had no power in the classroom and its beginning to stink. Some water seems to have been driven in by the wind. Other than that my office and classroom suffered little damage.

Others classes did, so its important that you be there Monday or Tuesday so we can discuss some changes that will have to be made. It looks like I will have to share my classroom with others, so we will probably treat this class more like a hybrid--part online part lecture--than a regular lecture class. This is probably fine since we are already using online sources, but I need to make sure that everyone has the necessary connectivity to make this work.

We'll cover these changes in class next week. By then I expect to have all of the readings and written assignments up on the wiki.

By the way, I understand that the hurricane has set people back, so I will be very lenient with deadlines. As long as you get me all the assigned work in a reasonable time frame, I will accept it.

Week Four Assignments

I've added assignments to week four for both 2301 and 2302. Go to the following wiki pages:

- 2301
- 2302

You'll notice that these assignments are the same for my Internet and lecture students. Until we get back on track I'll continue to do the same. These will not be due until October 6/7th. I have no idea who has power and who does not, so I'll be flexible with this and other class matters. If you are getting these messages let me know and try knocking all this stuff out.

At the moment it looks like we will have classes beginning Thursday--but who knows?

Back to the Grind

Classes will resume--as far as I know--Wednesday September 24. I will make adjustments over the course of the next two days, but I want to cover the same material. Expect more out of class assignments. My power has been out so I'm a bit behind the material on the wiki, but I expect to be caught up by tomorrow--Monday the 22nd.

Don't stress now. They'll be time for that later in the semester. ;)

Clarification on Week Three Test for Lecture Classes

All of my lecture classes, MW and TTH, are to give me short answer questions--originally assigned to my Internet students--on the readings for week three. There will be no multiple choice test on September 15/16. This is in order to deal with the unusual circumstances associated with Hurricane Ike, and the real possibility that may not be able to make it back on Monday.

I want to continue to stay on track despite this situation.

The assignments are on the wiki pages:
- 2301
- 2302

In case the links do not work, here are the assignments. Remember that I want you to turn in full answers, shoot for 200 or so words on each, on September 22/23, depending on which class you have of course. Base each on the assigned readings for your respective classes

2301:
1. Read the introduction of Popular Basis of Political Authority and outline the advantages and disadvantages of resting political on the general population. Which founders trusted the people and which did not?
2. Read the introduction to Right of Revolution and any one of the documents in Chapter 3. Comment on when revolution might be justified and when it might not be.
3. Read the Introduction to Republican Government and describe what a republic is, how it is organized and how they are best maintained.

2302:
1. Why were the federalists dissatisfied with the Articles of Confederation? What changes in the Constitution addressed these dis-satisfactions?
2. Outline the differences between the Virginia Plan, Hamilton's Plan and the resulting Constitution.
3. What theories underlie the designs of each of the separated powers?
4. Describe each of the checks and balances listed above and discuss any controversies associated with them.

Take your time, we all have more important things to do at the moment.

Gibson Interview With Palin

A link from ABC news.

The Youth Vote

Will it really make a difference? Will young voters actually turn out in sufficient number (probably for Obama) and influence the election's outcome?

Slate thinks it might, and gives reasons why they may.

Your Opinion of the Sarah Palin Pick

64% --- great pick
28% --- are you nuts?
7% --- I like living under rocks

Again, help me out and explain your decision. What about her makes you like her or not like her?

Congressional Oversight: I'm in the Wrong Line of Work

For my 2302's getting comfortable with the concept of congressional oversight, there's this little tidbit:

As Congress prepares to debate expansion of drilling in taxpayer-owned coastal waters, the Interior Department agency that collects oil and gas royalties has been caught up in a wide-ranging ethics scandal — including allegations of financial self-dealing, accepting gifts from energy companies, cocaine use and sexual misconduct.

...

Two other reports focus on “a culture of substance abuse and promiscuity” in the service’s royalty-in-kind program. That part of the agency collects about $4 billion a year in oil and gas rather than cash royalties.

Based in suburban Denver and modeled to operate like a private sector energy company, the decade-old royalty-in-kind program sells oil and gas on the open market. Its employees are subject to government ethics rules, such as restrictions on taking gifts from people and companies with whom they conduct official business.

One of the reports says that the officials viewed themselves as exempt from those limits, indulging themselves in the expense-account-fueled world of oil and gas executives.

The reports provoked immediate outrage in Congress. Senator Ron Wyden, an Oregon Democrat who is chairman of the Public Lands and Forests Subcommittee, accused the Minerals Management Service on the Senate floor Wednesday of “a pattern of abuses and mismanagement” that is costing taxpayers billions.

As said above, the oversight is being conducted by the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee's Subcommittee on Public Lands and Forests.

Here is a link to relevant agency: the Mineral Management Service. Here's the wikipedia entry.

Texas Judicial Resignations

When discussing the Texas Judiciary, we talk about the consequences of the fact that they are elected to their positions: the need for campaign donations, the possibility of justice being "for sale," etc....

I usually only superficially point out that this process is often bypassed when judges resign before an election in order to allow the governor to appoint a replacement who then has the advantage of running as an incumbent. This way the governor can ensure that a judge that shares his or her ideology holds the position.

This might help explain the recent resignations of three Harris county judges: David Bernal, former judge of the civil Harris County 281st District Court; John Wooldridge, ex-judge of the civil Harris County 269th District Court; and Wanda Fowler, who sat on the Houston-based 14th Court of Appeals, which serves 10 counties including Harris.

There is suspicion that they did so in order to avoid losing to a Democrat, if the surge in Democratic voters in Harris County has the impact some predict, but the judges and Harris County Republican Party deny this.

It's interesting to note what these judges have decided to do next in their careers.

All three ex-judges have gone into private law practice at higher salaries.
- Bernal left for Apache Corp
- Fowler joined the law firm Wright, Brown & Close.
- Wooldridge joined Baker Hughes

I imagine that it's nice to be able to hire an ex-judge.

Change in Plans

As you probably know by now, the campus is closed due to Hurricane Ike.

My Thursday classes cannot meet, so this will put us all behind in our work. In order to stay on track, but also give you all the leeway necessary to deal with whatever you have to deal with, I'm changing the assignment due for week three's readings.

I want everyone, lecture classes included, to do the work assigned to the Internet students. This involves some short answer questions posted on the wiki. I'd like my lecture students to turn in hard copy. The original due date was September 15/16, but I will postpone that one week, September 22/23. We will stay on track for week four's assignments, and--assuming we don't have another hurricane after Ike--we will have a multiple choice test on the week four's reading on September 22/23.

I assume that there will be some confusions regarding all this, so ask me what you need to ask and I'll try to be clearer.

Good luck and stay as dry as you can.

When Lies Become Facts

Interesting--perhaps disappointing--story in today's Washington Post:

As the presidential campaign moves into a final, heated stretch, untrue accusations and rumors have started to swirl at a pace so quick that they become regarded as fact before they can be disproved. A number of fabrications about Palin's policies and personal life, for instance, have circulated on the Internet since she joined the Republican ticket.

Palin and John McCain, the GOP presidential nominee, have been more aggressive in recent days in repeating what their opponents say are outright lies. Almost every day, for instance, McCain says rival Barack Obama would raise everyone's taxes, even though the Democrat's tax plan exempts families that earn less than $250,000.

Fed up, the Obama campaign broke a taboo on Monday and used the "L-word" of politics to say that the McCain campaign was lying about the Bridge to Nowhere.

Nevertheless, with McCain's standing in the polls surging, aides say he is not about to back down from statements he believes are fundamentally true, such as the anecdote about the bridge.

It's going to get ugly out there.

So you are on Death Row . . .

. . . and it turns out that the district attorney who presented the case against you and the judge were having an affair.

Problem? Do you deserve a new trial? If so why?

A Texas death row inmate whose lawyers argued a secret romantic relationship between the judge and prosecutor at his trial tainted the proceedings 19 years ago won a reprieve Tuesday from the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals that blocked his lethal injection set for the following day.

The state's highest criminal court, however, stopped Charles Dean Hood's execution not because of the alleged affair between retired Judge Verla Sue Holland and former Collin County District Attorney Tom O'Connell, but because of what it said were "developments in the law regarding (jury) nullification instructions."

The Austin-based court, where Holland once served as a judge after her stint as a district judge in the suburban Dallas county, said it would be "prudent to reconsider the decision we issued" in previously dismissing Hood's appeal that challenged jury instructions.

At the same time, the court dismissed claims Hood's attorneys filed that he was denied a fair trial because of what would be a legally unethical relationship between Holland and O'Connell and arguments that Hood's execution set for Wednesday would twice put his life in jeopardy.

The affair does not matter apparently.

Do you agree? Was this an improper---consolidation--of the executive and judicial branches?

Inequality and Republican ID

David Frum writes:

As America becomes more unequal, it also becomes less Republican.

On Contraception and Abortion

63 people voted on whether contraception is a form of abortion and here is the breakdown:

Yes: 5
No: 48
Depends on the type of contraception: 10

Anyone want to volunteer a justification for their answer?

Week Three Assignments for Internet Students are Up

Go to the Wiki for the full info and links to the readings:

GOVT 2301 - Week 3

GOVT 2302 - Week 3

For GOVT 2301: Answer each of the following questions in at least 250 words (longer answers are both allowed and encouraged)

1. Read the introduction of Popular Basis of Political Authority and outline the advantages and disadvantages of resting political on the general population. Which founders trusted the people and which did not?
2. Read the introduction to Right of Revolution and any one of the documents in Chapter 3. Comment on when revolution might be justified and when it might not be.
3. Read the Introduction to Republican Government and describe what a republic is, how it is organized and how they are best maintained.

For GOVT 2302: Answer each of the following questions in at least 200 words, you may go over, and perhaps should.

1. Why were the federalists dissatisfied with the Articles of Confederation? What changes in the Constitution addressed these dis-satisfactions?
2. Outline the differences between the Virginia Plan, Hamilton's Plan and the resulting Constitution.
3. What theories underlie the designs of each of the separated powers?
4. Describe each of the checks and balances listed above and discuss any controversies associated with them.

I will want these turned in by September 15.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

From the New York Times:

The Treasury Department on Sunday seized control of the quasi-public mortgage finance giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and announced a four-part rescue plan that included an open-ended guarantee to provide as much capital as they need to stave off insolvency.

We'll follow up.

On the South and the Republicann Party

From the Atlantic in 1998.

McCain's up by 3 Percentage Points

According to Gallup it's now McCain 48% Obama 45%.

The poll shows how support breaks down according to various groups. We will begin looking these over this week .

Working Class Women

This is the demographic group that will determine who the next president is, apparently, and the one that Republicans are hoping Sarah Palin will pull to their side. Hillary Clinton had their support, but will they stay Democrat now that Obama is at the top of the ticket?

The Los Angeles Times argues that the Palin pick isn't quite luring them over, at least in one key battleground state, Pennsylvania:

Interviews with some two dozen women here after Palin's convention speech found that these voters were not swayed by the fiery dramatic speeches or compelling personal biographies that marked both the Republican and Democratic conventions. Instead, they were thinking about the price of milk -- nearly $5 a gallon -- or the healthcare coverage that many working families here cannot afford.

Even if they admire Palin's attempt to juggle political ambition, an infant son with Down syndrome and a pregnant unwed daughter, these women say that maternal grit is not enough to win their votes.

Waitress Judy Artice, "Miss Judy," as she is known at Glisan's roadside diner, declared Palin "the perfect candidate" after watching her Wednesday speech. That said, Artice had already decided that her vote would go to the first candidate who mentioned gasoline prices.

"And -- I'll be danged -- it was Obama," Artice, 46, said between servings of liver and onions during the lunch rush.

Both campaigns have signaled that these blue-collar hamlets could be where the election will be decided, an assessment made even more likely when the nation's unemployment rate hit a five-year high in August.

McCain dominates among white men, and Obama, who would be the first black president, is all but sweeping the black vote, most polls show. That leaves white women, the so-called Clinton base, as one of the most sought-after voting groups left on the table.

We will monitor this as the campaign proceeds.

Battleground States as of September 2008

The following states will decide out next president:

Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia, all of which voted Republican in 2004, but Obama is competing in this year, and Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all of which voted Democrat in 2004, but McCain is competing in this year.

McCain has about a 10% lead in Texas, so don't expect much action here. But perhaps a few ads may run in Harris County since Democrats see county wide opportunities if voter turnout is high.

This little bit at the end of the story tells us something about how campaigns are run these days:

The [McCain] campaign is using technology to help identify likely voters, including having volunteers call supporters using Internet phones that can help collect data for the Republican National Committee.

“If the person you’re calling says, ‘Yes, I’m voting for Senator McCain,’ you push a button on the phone and it automatically goes back to the R.N.C. database,” Mr. DuHaime said. “If the person says it’s a wrong number, there’s another button and it wipes that number out, so that nobody ever calls that again.”

“You can take all that data,” he added, “and analyze it, figure out things that are working and things that are not and how to allocate resources.”

Sarah Palin and the Separation of Church and State

The New York Times reports on Sarah Palin's religious background. She has a literal approach to the Bible, which is her right as an individual, but I'd like to get some feedback about whether this could be problematic for an elected official. Could she make decisions biased in favor of a particular religious viewpoint, or could the country benefit from having someone in the vice presidency who reflects a biblically based value system?

From the NYT story:

Ms. Palin’s religious life — what she believes and how her beliefs intersect or not with her life in public office in Alaska — has become a topic of intense interest and scrutiny across the political spectrum as she has risen from relative obscurity to become Senator John McCain’s running mate.

Interviews with the two pastors she has been most closely associated with here in her hometown — she now attends the Wasilla Bible Church, though she keeps in touch with Mr. Riley and recently spoke at an event at his former church — and with friends and acquaintances who have worshipped with her point to a firm conclusion: her foundation and source of guidance is the Bible, and with it has come a conviction to be God’s servant.
...

“The churches that Sarah has attended all believe in a literal translation of the Bible,” Ms. Kincaid said. “Her principal ethical and moral beliefs stem from this.”

Prayer, and belief in its power, is another constant theme, Ms. Kincaid said, in what she has witnessed in Ms. Palin. “Her beliefs are firm in the power of prayer — let’s put it that way,” she said.

Maria Comella, a spokeswoman for the McCain-Palin campaign, said Ms. Palin had been baptized Roman Catholic as an infant, but declined to comment further.

“We’re not going to get into discussing her religion,” she said.

Tracking the Election

We've been monitoring Gallup's tracking polls in class, and will continue to do so up to the election. I'll add others focused on House, Senate and state races as well, but be prepared to answer questions about the relative positions of the two candidates.

Here's a story on the most recent results: Obama's lead over McCain has shrunk--naturally enough--since the Republicans have dominated the spotlight. The full impact has yet to be measured though, so expect more posts on this prior to Monday's test. Know how much support each candidate is receiving and why.

Did the Blogosphere Drive the Palin Selection?

Maybe.

Here's a blog, started in February 2007, which has pushed her selection.

Draft Sarah Palin for Vice President.

What does this tell us about contemporary politics?

Attention: Week Three Readings are up

The pages for week three are up. Internet students will have to wait til Sunday or Monday for the assignments. There will be, probably, ten or so short answer questions on the readings. I advise that you stick to week two for the weekend--you do read during the weekend right?--but when ready, start on week three.

- 2301 week three.

- 2302 week three.

A Few Takes on Palin's Speech

She looked liked she belonged--liked she had been there before--and did not step on any of her lines, which is what she had to do. No mistakes. She threw red meat to the social conservatives and gave them something to be happy about, but I want to see what the polls tell us about how moderates react to her.

Here are takes from three people smarter than me:

- Fred Barnes
- James Fallows
- Gloria Steinem

What Can a President Really Do?

Charlie Cook says, not as much as you think, and its best to think small. The problem is that there's lots that needs doing:

A breathtaking array of problems will immediately demand the attention of the next president.

One of the smartest guys in Washington is political economist Tom Gallagher, who monitors the intersection of economics, policy, and politics for the ISI Group, a Wall Street advisory firm. On the subject of budget deficits,

Gallagher is fond of quoting the late economist Herb Stein, who said that the problem isn't that wolves are at the door, it's that termites are in the foundation. Some of our country's problems are termites, not wolves. Unfortunately, as Gallagher warns, our system is geared more toward dealing with wolves.

Many of the problems gnawing away at the United States are rooted in our "$53 trillion 'real' national debt," the term coined by former Commerce Secretary Peter Peterson and former Comptroller General David Walker to describe our actual national debt, including unfunded liabilities such as Social Security and Medicare. Exacerbating these problems is a gradually retiring Baby Boom Generation twice the size of the current senior population. The crush of debt being passed on to future taxpayers is unconscionable, prompting Peterson, now chairman of the Blackstone Group, to hire Walker and commit $1 billion of his fortune to raising public awareness and prodding policy makers to find solutions.

Beyond Medicare, the constellation of health care problems includes funding Medicaid, covering the uninsured, and dealing with rising insurance costs that are increasingly hurting U.S. competitiveness.

Then there is energy--its cost and availability, and the implications of our dependence on foreign oil. Closely related is the need to shift to renewable-energy sources that don't exacerbate global warming or ravage the environment.

Both political parties are playing ostrich. Many Democrats are dragging their feet on responsible offshore drilling and on nuclear power. Republicans are resisting tougher fuel-efficiency standards and, in some cases, development of alternative-energy sources. Until we acknowledge that the solution to our energy problems is all of the above, we are unlikely to get out of the current mess.

Next on the list are the mounting U.S. trade imbalance, our lack of competitiveness, and our dependence on foreign investment to prop up our credit markets. Even as our global interdependence grows, schools continue to turn out too many students who are ill-equipped to compete in the international economy. And don't forget the entrenched underclass, enslaved in a cycle of poverty from which few escape, and immigration policies that bar some of the brightest minds in the world from American graduate schools.

This month's one-year anniversary of the bridge collapse in Minneapolis is a reminder of our national infrastructure crisis. In a recent meeting with editors and reporters at National Journal, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg said that his city's officials are afraid to shut off the water to allow close inspection of some fragile pipes because the water pressure might be the only thing keeping them from collapsing.

The list of national woes wouldn't be complete without mentioning the home mortgage debacle and the related credit crisis. These problems--which will take years to fix--are choking off the ability of businesses large and small to obtain credit to expand or hire workers, and they are making it difficult for people to buy homes and cars. When a credit-driven economy reduces access to credit, that is a real crisis.

A common denominator of many of these problems is government revenue, with the day growing closer when we will need to shift to some form of consumption tax, perhaps as a replacement for the personal and corporate income-tax structure. A consumption tax is a more efficient method of tax collection, and it would boost our trade competitiveness.

Finally, in the area of foreign policy, the United States faces threats posed by terrorism, a nuclear-armed Iran, and an increasingly belligerent Russia.

Clearly, a host of complex challenges will demand our next chief executive's time. But another of the really smart folks in Washington, ViaNovo lobbyist and policy strategist Billy Moore, argues, "History shows that new presidents can usually only accomplish three or four big things in their first term, and that reaching beyond this number results in fewer, not more, achievements."

So, John McCain and Barack Obama, don't say we didn't warn you.

Overview of the Election from Gallup

The Gallup Poll provides a brief overview of the election. Key points:

- Democrats have a "structural" election advantage.
- Turnout will be a key factor.
- Pattern of candidate support is similar to 2000 and 2004 elections.
- Top voter issue this year is the economy. Gas prices, Iraq, healthcare, and terrorism remain important.

Poll Question: Is Contraception Abortion?

The New York Times reports that the Bush Administration is considering changes to rules for programs run with funding from the Health and Human Services Department that would protect health providers who are opposed to abortion, and wish to act accordingly.

The rules however broaden the definition of abortion to include methods generally considered to be simply contraception.

The proposal defines abortion as follows: “any of the various procedures — including the prescription, dispensing and administration of any drug or the performance of any procedure or any other action — that results in the termination of the life of a human being in utero between conception and natural birth, whether before or after implantation.”

Mary Jane Gallagher, president of the National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Association, which represents providers, said, “The proposed definition of abortion is so broad that it would cover many types of birth control, including oral contraceptives and emergency contraception.”

So here's a poll question, answer it on the poll to the right. Is contraception abortion?

Google "contraception" and "abortion" and you'll get tons of links to pages on the subject. There's quite the anti-contraception movement underway.

A New Link: Political Glossary

Here's another reason why only use online sources: The Washington Post's Political Glossary.

Not sure what a political term means? Check it out.

I linked to in on the general online resources section. We will be using it frequently.

No Bounces

Generally presidential candidates get bounces in public opinion polls (brief increases in support) after they are nominated by their party in the national convention and after they announce their vice presidential selections.

Neither candidate got much of one. The Moderate Voice explains:

A new Gallup Daily tracking poll taken after the Democratic convention and after Republican Senator John McCain picked Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate shows Democratic Presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama’s lead down two points. Obama now has a 6 point lead.

Both Gallup and a website that analyzes polls suggest this means (1) Obama didn’t get much of a convention bounce but its hard to judge given the rapidity of McCain’s Veep announcement, (2)McCain’s Palin pick didn’t give him an out of the ordinary Vice Presidential pick bounce, and (3) if the Palin pick is factored in Democrats shouldn’t be too upset because Obama seemingly held up fairly well.

Spinning the Palin Selection

Now that John McCain has made his selection of a Vice Presidential candidate, pundits are figuring out what this says about McCain. Here's input from McCain's hometown newspaper, the Arizona Republic, summary below:

6 thing the Palin pick says about "maverick" McCain:

1- He's desperate
2- He's willing to gamble - big time
3- He's worried about the political implications of his age
4- He's not worried about the actuarial implications of his age
5- He's worried about his conservative base
6- At the end of the day, McCain is still McCain

Let's comment in class.

What is an Argument?

I'm reading through some of the submissions and it's becoming obvious that not all of you have a clear idea about what an argument is. An observation on your part that someone has done something that you do not like, or has said something misleading, is not a fallacy. A lie is a statement, not an argument. This assignment begins with your selection of an argument that someone has made about a candidate that takes the form of one of the fallacies listed in the page I linked you to.

Part of the assignment is to do the assigned readings and give me the assigned work, not something you have written for yourself. Half of my job--the most unpleasant half--is to figure out who has read the material and who has not. Some of this difficulty, again, might simply come from ignorance about what is and is not a logical argument. My bad for not going over this in class, but it is one of those subjects we tend to assume has been covered in high school. I'll not make that assumption again.

Let's figure out what an argument is. Again Monty Python helps clarify the issue much better than I can. For less silly content, here are some of the definitions or "argument" from dictionary.com:

- a discussion involving differing points of view; debate: They were deeply involved in an argument about inflation.- a process of reasoning; series of reasons: I couldn't follow his argument.
- an address or composition intended to convince or persuade; persuasive discourse.

There are other definitions--check them out--but let's stick to these. Notice that the second definition states that an argument is a process of reasoning, while the third states that an argument is meant to persuade. These aren't necessarily the same. A process of reasoning--let's call it a logical argument--may be unexciting and not persuade the listeners, while a non-logical--or fallacious--argument, might be very persuasive (Vote McCain and you'll lose 30 pounds in your sleep!). Often these can be more persuasive that logical arguments, which tend to make the brain hurt.

Let's look at a couple of more terms in order to clarify this further. The first term is "fallacy." The second is "valid."

Fallacy. Again here are three definitions from dictionary.com:

- a misleading or unsound argument.
- deceptive, misleading, or false nature; erroneousness.
- Logic. any of various types of erroneous reasoning that render arguments logically unsound.

Valid, again from dictionary.com:

- Producing the desired results; efficacious: valid methods.
- Containing premises from which the conclusion may logically be derived: a valid argument.
- Correctly inferred or deduced from a premise: a valid conclusion.
Notice the last two definitions especially. My apologies to the logicians, who won't find this summary adequate, but a valid argument is meant to retain the truth embedded in its premises. The classic example of such an argument is the syllogism (definition from--guess where):

- Logic. an argument the conclusion of which is supported by two premises, of which one (major premise) contains the term (major term) that is the predicate of the conclusion, and the other (minor premise) contains the term (minor term) that is the subject of the conclusion; common to both premises is a term (middle term) that is excluded from the conclusion. A typical form is “All A is C; all B is A; therefore all B is C.”

A fallacy argument, by definition, loses the truth of its premises as the argument progresses--but that does not mean it can't be persuasive. Your job, again, is to look at the arguments you see being made about the candidate--not your personal assessments of them--and to test for their validity.

If you have not done the assignment as I have asked, I will ask that you do it again.

Once all these assignments are in, we can spend some time determining whether democratic politics are rational exercises or are purely driven by fallacy. This may prove depressing.