Texas Immigration Bills so Far

The Texas Tribune reports on the variety of immigration bills that have been introduced into the legislature so far this year.

Debating Rand Paul's Proposal to Cut $500 Billion in Spending This Year

Senator Paul has proposed how to cut $500 billion this year from the U.S. budget. Details are here. Patrick Appel invited his readers to comment on the cuts. Perhaps we should weigh in also. It a good way to look ahead at a future discussion about the size and scope of the federal government.

Looking Ahead - Week 4's Assessment

2301

- be prepared for maybe a dozen questions from Federalist #10. Read this thing thoroughly.
- What is Madison's attitude towards pure democracy. Why does he feel this way?
- How can the violence of factions be adequately addressed?
- How does the problem of factions affect us today?
- What does Madison tell us about human nature?
- How does a republic deal with the problems posed by factions?
- What do we now know about how groups form?
- Which interests are most likely to form effective groups?
- What problems might these groups pose for effective government?

2302

- What organizations has Congress established to help members accomplish their duties?
- What do committees do? What types are there? Which are the most important and why?
- What are the goals of the typical member of Congress? How do they achieve these goals?
- What do parties in Congress do? How did they evolve? What positions in Congress are really party positions? What do people in these positions do?
- Who holds these positions currently?
- What are the powers of the U.S. Speaker?
- How are the powers of parties, committees and others the same in both Congress and the Texas Legislature?

Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission Report

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission has released its report detailing the causes of the recent recession and while it has agreed on some causes, the commission split on partisan lines whether the implosion of the housing market could have been predicted and prevented. Democrats say yes, Republicans say no. Democrats are more likely to blame the risks encouraged by the private sector, Republicans blame liberal policies designed to increase home buying among the poor.

- The official report.
- Room for Debate: Was the Crisis Avoidable?
- NPR: Podcast.
- Wikipedia: Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission.
- Wikipedia: Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009.

David Frum takes both sides to task:

It’s an article of faith among conservatives that the fundamental cause of the crisis was excess lending to poor people and minorities. It’s equally an article of faith among liberals that the lending had little if anything to do with the crisis. The conservative view faces 2 powerful counter-arguments: (1) after the year 2000, the real driver of subprime lending was the non-bank sector, not subject to the CRA; and (2) the subprime market was just too small to tank the US financial sector. Sub-prime lending only became a threat when sub-prime loans were packaged into derivatives. The CRA did not require anyone to do that.

But the liberal view also faces a counter-argument: Sub-prime loans were the stuff of which the toxic derivatives were made, and it was not some idle whim or fancy of the bankers that led to the proliferation of sub-prime loans. For example, it was the pressure of the CRA that led to the invention of the concept of the “credit score” so as to diminish the discretion of lending institutions. Credit scores in turn became a driver of the expansion of credit to ever less creditworthy borrowers.

Will Health Care Survive the Courts:

From the UPI:

The repeal of healthcare reform by the U.S. House earlier this month may have been a feckless exercise of political theater but there is no playacting when it comes to the legal challenges now elbowing their way through the U.S. courts.

The U.S. Senate is extremely unlikely to follow the House's lead, and President Obama has vowed to veto the repeal if it does. But the legal challenges to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act by 28 states and others inevitably are headed to a U.S. Supreme Court dominated by a 5-4 conservative majority expected to be at least philosophically sympathetic.
File this under checks and balances and federalism, among other things.

Throwing in the Towel Already???

From Roll Call:

Some New Hampshire Republicans privately concede that whichever candidate emerges from the cloudy field of GOP presidential hopefuls is unlikely to defeat President Barack Obama in the general election.

“Let’s face it, the chances of Obama being defeated anyway are slim,” one top New Hampshire Republican operative said. “I’m just being a realist. The guy’s going to raise $1 billion.”

Dewhurst Announces Senate Committee Assignments

This is one of the tools available to the president of the Texas Senate that grants him leverage over the rank and file.

- story in the Chron.
- story in the Texas Tribune.

Area Senator Mike Jackson is on the Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Business and Commerce, Natural Resources, and State Affairs committees. Both 2301 and 2302 students ought to consider what exactly the Senator is able to do to address constituency needs in each of these committees.

Meet Jay Carney: The New White House Press Secretary ....

. . . and ex-White House reporter:

A veteran Washington reporter once made an observation about the “tricky” job of the White House press secretary — an observation that Jay Carney might want to heed when he steps into the role next month.

“There’s a certain amount of information that the press secretary wants to convey,” the reporter noted. “There’s another pocket of information that he’s willing to convey, I believe, if provoked, or led that way by a question — or tricked. And you want to get to that.”

The reporter in question was Mr. Carney himself, then the Washington bureau chief for Time magazine, during a 2006 discussion hosted by C-Span. His assessment of his own potential shortcomings — “I’m sure I wouldn’t be any good at it,” he said — will be put to the test as he becomes President Obama’s new chief spokesman.
More from the Atlantic.
Wikipedia: White House Press Secretary.
Wikipedia: Jay Carney.

Senate Tea Party Caucus Off to Slow Start

Some senators supported by the movement have refused to join the Senate Tea Party Caucus.

- Story in Slate.
- Wikipedia: House Tea Party Caucus.

Senate Procedures Changed to Address Gridlock

Here's an NYT story that might help my 2302's with this weeks written assignment:

In an effort to ease persistent Senate gridlock, the leadership on Thursday promised to temper the procedural warfare that has consumed the chamber in recent years and increased partisan tension. “We want the Senate to move deliberately,” said Senator Harry Reid, the Democratic majority leader. “But we want it to move.”

The bipartisan agreement left intact the filibuster, the most powerful weapon that can be used on the Senate floor. But the Senate approved other changes Thursday in rules intended to quicken the pace of action, including new limits on a single lawmaker’s ability to anonymously block legislation and nominations.

At the same time, Senator Harry Reid, the Nevada Democrat and majority leader, made a commitment to give Republicans more opportunity to change legislation on the floor in exchange for a commitment from Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, to refrain from filibustering attempts to bring up measures for debate.

“We want the Senate to move deliberately,” Mr. Reid said. “But we want it to move. We have to find a balance that will encourage us to debate and that also enables us to legislate.”

Media Technology, the Egyptian Uprising and Almost Everthing Else These Days

This authors marvels at how communications technology has facilitated political organization:

Whatever the ultimate outcome of events in the Arab world, the speed with which large numbers of people have responded to events far away is remarkable. Just as audiocassettes of the Ayatollah Khomeini's sermons served as a medium of transmission in Iran's Islamic revolution in 1979, here a combination of modern mass media (Al Jazeera, the Internet, email, Twitter, etc.) has clearly played a major role in driving the pace of events.

At the same time, we're living with a nearly unprecedented outpouring of previously hidden information, via Wikileaks and the "Palestine Papers." This is the wave of the future, I suspect, because the Internet is making it impossible to contain a secret once it's out. Even if governments convinced some news agencies to suppress a secret, somebody somewhere else would release it and then we would all find it on the Web. That gives leakers a bigger incentive to release classified information, precisely because they can be more confident that the leak will get noticed and have an impact. This situation is bound to have significant second-order effects, as governments have to choose between supporting greater transparency, taking harsher action against leakers, or being more reluctant to speak candidly or to record confidential exchanges in ways that could be leaked.

Weaver v. Rove

At the end of one of the stories in the previous post I saw the following text:

"The little things can haunt you down the road," Smith says, remembering 20-year-old feuds between Republican consultants John Weaver and Karl Rove that started in Texas party politics and reverberate today in national campaigns. "These things are dangerous in politics."


This got me wondering about the feud, so I pulled up some links that might tell a few things about how the political process works on the ground. Here's a great quote from one:

No one, though, knows Rove's vindictiveness better than John Weaver. Were it not for Karl Rove, Weaver might still be a leading Republican political consultant. In Texas, Rove and Weaver had been successful partners, until Weaver chose to go out on his own and build a client list. A few months later, Weaver hired an employee away from Rove. Before too long, as competition grew between Rove and Weaver, disgusting rumors began to circulate about Weaver's personal life, and reporters and potential clients wondered about Weaver's judgment. The stories, which many reporters have said originated with Rove, dried up Weaver's business, and he left Texas. Eventually, Weaver became the lead political strategist to Senator John McCain's presidential campaign. After McCain lost the bitter primary battle, Weaver discovered he was squeezed out of party work by Rove, who was now in charge of all things Republican. Weaver became a Democrat, an advisor to the Democratic National Committee, simply because Rove was never content to leave him alone.
- Wikipedia: John Weaver.
- Wikipedia: Karl Rove.
- Politico.
- The Atlantic.

The Texas Democratic Trust

For 2301, in anticipation of our discussion of political parties: Since 2005, Texas' Democratic Party operations have been at least partly funded by an unusual organization called the Texas Democratic Trust, a Political Action Committee which has funded the Texas Democratic Party along with a variety of other groups and consultants. As a result of the recent election, the trust has lost support and might be in danger of closing down, but the links here give you an idea of the recent history of the Democratic Party in Texas.

- Texas Tribune: Is This Its Final Year?
- Wikipedia: Fred Baron.
- Texas Tribune: Matt Angle.
- Texas Watchdog.
- Mother Jones: Regarding Matt Angle.
- Open Secrets: Texas Democratic Trust.

Senator Ron Paul?

Paul Burka comments on the possibility he might make a run, and offers this ominous comment:

The problem with having Ron Paul represent Texas in the United States Senate is that Paul doesn’t chase after federal money. It’s against his principles. Forget money for NASA, for highways, for universities, for military bases. He will cost Texas hundreds of millions of dollars in foregone federal aid. Paul will have none of it. He is a unique type of politician. He represents principles rather than people. If he chooses to run, he will be very difficult to defeat. And Texas will never get back a dime of the money its taxpayers send to Washington.

Early Projections for the U.S. House 2012 Race

A good read from Isaac Wood. Note the point he makes below that wave elections tend to happen in midterm, not presidential elections. This is almost certainly due to the fact that turnout in these elections tend to be slanted more towards the president's opponents.

While the midterm meltdown by Democrats was undoubtedly a severe setback—leaving them in need of a 25-seat gain to capture the House majority—it set them on firmer footing heading into 2012. Simply put, it will be very difficult for Republicans to find new Democratic seats to contest since their 2010 gains grabbed most of the districts they could easily flip. Conversely, Democrats now find themselves in the same position as the GOP was in two years ago, with a short list of districts to defend and a long list of potential targets. Republicans are at a high watermark in House seats—their current caucus of 242 members is their largest since 1949—and many of those new congressmen hail from districts where Democrats can wage a competitive contest.

The key difference between 2010 and 2012 is obvious: 2012 will be a presidential, not a midterm, election year. Although that fact may seem self-evident, it offers a litany of historical comparisons that can offer early clues as to what 2012 has in store at the House level. Over the past half-century, presidents who were reelected swept in on their coattails an average of 10 new House members of their same party. In fact, all four of the presidents who sought and won reelection since 1960 (Richard Nixon in 1972, Ronald Reagan in 1984, Bill Clinton in 1996, and George W. Bush in 2004) also picked up seats in the House. These gains ranged from 15 new House seats for Republicans in 1984 to just 3 new seats for the GOP in 2004.

If Obama wins reelection next November, history therefore suggests his party will gain a handful of House seats. There are fewer historical precedents in recent years for defeated presidents, with only Jimmy Carter’s defeat in 1980 and George H. W. Bush’s 1992 loss as potential analogies to a 2012 Obama ouster. While Carter’s loss was accompanied by Democrats surrendering 33 seats in the House, Republicans actually picked up 10 new House seats even as Bush was defeated at the top of their ticket.

Whatever the result of the presidential race, there is one constant that should be sobering for Democrats chomping at the bit to recapture the House majority. Over the 13 presidential elections of the past 50 years, only twice has either party registered a net gain of 25 or more House seats, the threshold Democrats must cross to regain control of the chamber. At least for the past half-century, the true wave elections have come in midterm years (2010, 2006, 1994, 1974, 1966) while the presidential years have seen calmer seas.

Will the Tunisia Revolt Spill Over?

It seems that it already has - in Egypt, Lebanon, and Yemen - but no telling if anything really changes in these countries and if any change comes close to democracy. Still, it seems interesting that the movement in one country is spilling over to its neighbors. Here's a comparison between these events in 2011 with those in 1989.

Awesome and Shameful

The United States of Shame.
The United States of Awesome.

Houston's State of the Airport Address

In local news, Houston's airport chief wants to expand the city's global connections:

"For Houston's economy to continue its vibrant growth, we must position our airport system to make it possible for Houston to remain closely connected with emerging markets and strong economic centers globally," said Mario Diaz, director of the city's Department of Aviation.

"We can no longer be satisfied to merely be connected with every major city in the U.S. and Western Europe. We must now seek to position Houston as a major nexus in the global air transportation grid."

Diaz spoke during the Greater Houston Partnership's annual State of the Airports luncheon at a Galleria area hotel.

He said the airport is pursuing direct flights to Vietnam, South Africa and India, among other countries.

Once Continental Airlines begins its daily nonstop flights to Lagos, Nigeria and Auckland, New Zealand in the next few years, Houston will become one of the four airports in the world with nonstop service to six major world regions, Diaz said.

Partisanship Trends by State

From The Monkey Cage, data showing how different states over the past 50-60 years have shifted partisan alliances.

Committee on Oversight Begins Investigating the Obama Investigation

This'll be fun:

If Representative Darrell E. Issa, Republican of California, gets his wish, he will have only two years to serve as a chief tormenter of the Obama administration. So he was understandably eager to get started on Wednesday with his first hearing as chairman of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.

In jumping into the complex issue of bank bailouts, the committee provided an object lesson in the flexibility of words, showing that statements on complex matters like how to resolve a financial crisis can often be open to competing interpretations.

The Filibuster Lives On

Democrats drop efforts to limit the use of the filibuster.

After a lengthy meeting with their colleagues and clear signs that they lacked the votes to try to force through new restrictions on the filibuster, the lawmakers — Senators Tom Udall of New Mexico, Jeff Merkley of Oregon and Tom Harkin of Iowa — said they would relent now but press their case over the long term.

“While I’m disappointed this body lacks the necessary will to enact truly substantive reforms, we have certainly succeeded in bringing reform to the forefront and shining a light on the sources of our dysfunction,” Mr. Udall said. He added that he was committed to “making sure the Senate is more than just a graveyard for good ideas and we are able to address the challenges we face as a nation.”

The Democrats had never championed elimination of the filibuster, but sought to reduce its use and to require senators taking part in any blockade to be represented on the floor while doing so.

More signs of a Tea Party / Mainstream Republican Rift?

NYT reports on the two separate responses given to the SOTUS:

In the party’s official reply, which immediately followed President Obama’s speech, Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin, chairman of the House Budget Committee, said the country faced “a crushing burden of debt.” He vowed that Republicans, after assuming control of the House this year, would honor their pledge to provide Americans “a better choice and a different vision.”

“Americans are skeptical of both political parties, and that skepticism is justified — especially when it comes to spending,” Mr. Ryan said, striking a conciliatory tone as he vowed to work with the president to find cuts. “So hold all of us accountable.”

But Mr. Ryan, who was designated by Speaker John A. Boehner to respond to the president, did not have the last word. Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, who founded the Tea Party Caucus last year, gave a response of her own in a message to the Tea Party Express, one of the movement’s largest groups of activists.

“For two years,” Ms. Bachmann said, “President Obama made promises, just like the ones we heard him make this evening, yet still we have high unemployment, devalued housing prices and the cost of gasoline is skyrocketing.”

Budget Deficit Hits $1.5 Trillion

The tax cut extension didn't help.

- CBO estimate.
- NPR story.

In Russia, the Executive Controls the Judiciary

Story in NPR:

Innocent until proven guilty: It's a bedrock principle in Western democracies. Not so, it seems, in Russia, where defendants go to trial expecting to be found guilty. They're just hoping for a lenient sentence.

That's why few Russians were surprised when Mikhail Khodorkovsky, once Russia's richest man, was convicted of embezzlement and sentenced last month to prison for a second term.

Once the head of a giant oil company, Khodorkovsky, 47, is now modern Russia's most famous prisoner. He spoke out against the Kremlin, was arrested and was sent to prison in 2003. Just as Khodorkovsky was about to complete that sentence, a judge convicted him in December of embezzlement and money laundering; he'll stay locked up in Siberia until 2017.

Khodorkovsky's 25-year-old son, Pavel Khodorkovsky, who lives in New York and hasn't seen his father in seven years, wishes more people paid attention to the case.

"My dad's case is a very good illustration of one simple fact: There is no rule of law, no working judicial system in Russia," he said in an interview last year.

Reactions to the SOTUS

As compiled by Andrew Sullivan.

There were two Republican responses. Does this indicate a rift within the caucus?

Neat little graphic: word count in previous speeches over time.

Regarding Committee Assignments in the Texas Legislature and the Possible Election to Replace David Dewhurst

Both from Paul Burka:

- Speculating on House Committees.
- A Speaker’s Race in the East Wing.

Do the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution Conflict?

I just read through an interesting written answer by a 2301 student who seemed to argue that while health care is indeed "among" the unalienable rights, there is still no specific authority in the Constitution for national health care policy.

This led me to wonder whether the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution can come into conflict. Can they?

Aisle Hogs

Enjoy. Note our area rep Sheila Jackson Lee.

SOTUS - 2011

President Obama performs one the president's constitutional duties tonight by delivering to Congress a message on the state of the union. It is intended to allow the executive the opportunity to impact the legislature's agenda by taking a message not only to Congress, but to the general population. While it is argued that these addresses provide president's the opportunity gain popularity, there is little evidence that they in fact do.

- Findlaw: The Legislative Role of the President.

Spring 2011 - 2301 - First Written Question

I'm almost finished with the introductory written question for 2301 and I need to make two points about topics most people missed.

1 - I wanted you to get familiar with the manner in which each of our governing institutions is and is not democratic in the sense that they are controlled tightly by the electorate and subject to its whims.

2 - I was also hoping for some appreciation of the dilemmas governments that claim to be both democratic, and based on individual freedom must confront. Majorities often do not like it when vocal minorities exercise their rights. It takes institutions removed from the majority often to in fact secure the unalienable rights. This is a point we will hammer later this semester.

To help understand the dilemma, consider whether these people have the right to do what they do. And if they do, how is that right secured?

Aha!

See . . . there's a good reason why I should assess you every week.

Taking a test is not just a passive mechanism for assessing how much people know, according to new research. It actually helps people learn, and it works better than a number of other studying techniques.

It helps you retain information. That's the point. You tell me, but I have a hunch you learn more preparing form assessments than you do listening to my lectures.

An Act for the Relief of Sick and Disabled Seamen

Apparently John Adams signed a law in 1798 that looks a lot like the health care act.

Looking Ahead - Week 3's Assessments

2301

- the preamble
- the basic design of the three branches
- full faith and credit
- privileges and immunities
- the supremacy clause
- basic facts about the Annapolis Convention
- basic facts about the Constitutional Convention
- basic facts about the Articles of Confederation
- the principles embedded within the Constitution
- Hamilton and Madison’s proposals for constitutions
- a couple question about the differences between the U.S. and Texas Constitutions

2302
- one question on the constitutional convention
- the census
- positions established in the U.S. Constitution.
- powers and limits of Congress written in Articles 8 and 9.
- specific design features of the House and Senate
- checks and balances
- the bill making process in section 7
- factors establishing the independence of the legislature.
- difference between the U.S. and Texas Legislative branches
- Congressional elections

Senate Traditions

From the U.S. Senate homepage, a list of Senate traditions as well as the guides they provide newly elected senators.

The 25 Most Powerful People in Texas

According to Texas Monthly they are:

Steve Ogden
Jim Pitts
Rick Perry
Jay Kimbrough
Dave Carney
Bill Hammond
Dick Trabulsi
Brooke Rollins
Scott McCown
Dan Patrick
Michael Quinn Sullivan
Tom Suehs
Bob Perry
Steve Mostyn
Al Armendariz
Alonzo Cantu
Bill Powers
Woody Hunt
Charles Butt
Pat Robbins
Mike Toomey
Rusty Kelley
Buddy Jones
Bill Miller
Brint Ryan

What Olbermann's Departure Means

The Daily Beast thinks it means the American public is growing tired of wingnuts. Moderates are turning away from them.

Why Obama Might Win in 2012

A couple Republican consultants spell out 12 reasons (they'll provide some later arguing why he might not) but one sticks out for us, especially in 2301.

Forty percent of Americans now see the president as a moderate. That’s up 10 percentage points from a year ago. More importantly, 44 percent of independents now call Obama a moderate, up from 28 percent a year ago. If congressional Republicans are viewed as strident and over-reaching, Obama will be well positioned as a moderating force—with or without any Clintonian triangulation.
This fits with a general point we will make when we discuss elections. The candidate or party that captures the center - the moderates - tends to win.

The Rank and File in the Texas Legislature

So you are a newly elected member of the Texas Legislature and by definition, you are the mercy of forces more powerful than you, and some of these pull you in different direction. That seems to be the fate of Humble Republican Dan Huberty. This story tells us something about how individual members make decisions.

Texas' Three Party System

From BurkaBlog:

The way that things are shaping up in the House is that there not two but three “parties” of near-equal strength. There are the mainstream Republicans, the Tea Party Republicans, and the Democrats. On hot-button issues like border security, Voter ID, and the sonogram bill, the two Republican factions will join to overwhelm the Democrats. Straus will be moving these bills through the House and his supporters will be voting for them in self-preservation. The fight is going to come over education, and the Republican caucus could split wide open over issues like getting rid of Pre-K, closing neighborhood schools, and doing away with the 22:1 student-teacher ratio.

The issues that mainstream Republicans are going to hate to deal with are those that that bring them into potential conflict with influential people in their districts–superintendents, hospital administrators, junior college presidents, university regents, all of whose institutions are dependent upon the state for their funding. Mainstream Republicans are going to be caught between Tea Party conservatives and their traditional constituencies of parents and professionals. In order to prevail, the mainstream conservatives have nowhere to look for help except the Democrats. They sure aren’t going to get any help from the Conservative Coalition, which has already demonstrated its disinterest in public education, starting with Pre-K. We are months away from this outcome, and maybe a couple of special sessions too, but when you have three factions in a legislative body, sooner or later one of them is going to cut a deal with another one, and the least strange bedfellows are mainstream Republicans and Democrats.

More Emergency Legislation

The governor add pre-abortion sonograms to the list.

One Third of Revenue ShortFall Due to Business Tax Breaks

From the Chron:

Business tax breaks cost Texas $4.3 billion in the last state budget, a figure that amounts to about a third of the state's massive revenue shortfall, according to a legislative report obtained on Friday by the Associated Press.

The report also found that local governments lost $235 billion in state property tax exemptions, including those given for elderly and disabled homeowners, according to the report prepared by the House Ways and Means Committee. A tally for sales tax exemptions - the state's biggest cash generator - was not available.

One of the largest carve-outs was for the natural gas tax, which totaled about $1 billion a year in exemptions, according to the report. An exemption for bottled water sales amounted to a loss of about $250 million a year for the state, while an exemption for corporations with business interest in solar energy devices cost more than $1 million over the last two years.

What Exactly Do Republicans Plan on Cutting?

Nothing specifc has been outlined yet, but the WaPo claims Democrats argue that:

cuts of that magnitude - if applied across the board - would require the Justice Department to fire 4,000 FBI agents and 1,500 agents at the Drug Enforcement Administration. The federal prison system would have to fire 5,700 correctional officers, the Agriculture Department would have to cut about 3,000 food safety inspectors, and the Head Start early-childhood education program would be forced to cut about 389,000 children from its rolls.

And this is for the $100 billion plan, the 10 year $2.5 trillion dollar plan will certainly cut more -- except for defense spending. Again the question will be, as we are dealing with this in Texas, how will the general public react to these specifics?

David Frum doesn't think this will help Republicans in the next election:

. . . if you want to cut $100 billion from spending in FY11, you will have to start with immediate furloughs of hundreds of thousands of government workers, stop paying the government’s share of the TSP savings programs, close down most government funded operations, and stop most of the research grants the U.S. funds.

It can be done. But if it is done, President Obama and the Democratic Party will have been given one of the great electoral gifts of all time.

Just imagine the head of a local hospital, funded in part by federal monies, who headed up the finance team for one of the new House Republicans, calling that Member and saying, “Holy Cow, do you know that you have just closed down part of the cancer wing here.”
But if they don't go forward with the cuts, they risk losing the Tea Party. There's your dilemma.

Ted Cruz and Scott McCown Debate Health Care Law and the Tenth Amendment

A couple of smart guys (Texans!) come to opposite conclusions regarding what the Tenth Amendment means and whether the Affordable Health Care Act is constitutional.

- Scott McCown - yes its constitutional.
- Ted Cruz - no its not.

Who is Scott McCown?
Who is Ted Cruz? He wants be your next Senator.

Fees, Not Taxes

From the Chron:

Texans could find themselves digging deeper for traffic fines, child-support payments processed by the state attorney general’s office and millions of dollars in other fees under the no-new-taxes budget proposal released by House leaders this week.

According to Legislative Budget Board figures, revenue increases from fees in the starting-point budget draft total some $131 million. That includes proposals such as the raising the state traffic fine from $30 to $45, which would require separate legislation.

That total does not include every potential new out-of-pocket expense in the two-year budget draft, such as a proposed $30 monthly health-insurance surcharge for state government employees and retirees who use tobacco.

The budget measure, which is a starting point for discussion, includes only a slim part of a $1.2 billion menu of savings and money-raising options prepared by the Legislative Budget Board under the heading of "government effectiveness and efficiency," in case lawmakers find the bare-bones approach indigestible.

About Texas' Rainy Day Fund

Given the $31 billion cut proposed in the Texas budget, some have wondered why the state shouldn't tap into the $9 billion in Texas' Rainy Day Fund. The links below explain what the Rainy Day and is, and whether it is appropriate to tap into it.

- info from Texas Politics (includes information about the Texas Enterprise Fund).
- constitutional text creating the Economic Stabilization Fund (the official name of the rainy day fund).
- Texas Tribune: The Rainy Day Fund.
- TPPF Guide to the fund and commentary on its use.
- One legislator says its raining.

What is "Emergency" Legislation in Texas?

So far, Governor Perry has declared a handful of issues to be "emergencies." These include bills relating to Voter ID, Sanctuary Cities, a balanced budget amendment for the U.S.Constitution, and eminent domain. The bill making process in the legislature does not allow for bills to be voted on until after 60 days have passed int he session - the first 60 days are reserved for the introduction of legislation and its consideration in committee.

The 60 day rule is waived if the governor has put the bill on his list of emergency bills. The assumption is that these are urgent matters that need expediting, for whatever reason.

- An explanation in the Texas Tribune.
- TLI: Introducing a bill.

Whats' the Matter With Texas

A few various viewpoints from the NYT.

Was the Repeal a Wise Move?

A couple of commentaries suggesting maybe not:

- David Frum.
- Eugene Robinson.

Frum makes a great point regarding polling on the issue, something we will dig into in 2301 when we discuss the pitfalls of polls:

If I were working for a 2012 Republican presidential aspirant, I’d be preparing now for this debate question: “Governor/Senator: Do you believe that the federal government should ensure that all Americans can buy an affordable health-insurance policy?”

It’s a tough question. If you answer “no” — well you are putting yourself pretty clearly on the wrong side of public opinion.

Americans may be divided on the Democrats’ recent health reform. They don’t like taking money out of Medicare; they don’t like the idea of the government making health decisions for them. (I know those two positions sound inconsistent, but hey: I’m reporting, not judging.)

But on the specific question I just asked, the American public expresses itself more than 70 percent in favor, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. In a survey conducted during the George W. Bush years, The New York Times tested Americans’ generosity. What if helping the less advantaged increased the cost of your own health insurance? Forty-eight percent were still in favor of a government plan; only 38 percent said they were not. What if the plan added $500 to your tax bill? Forty-nine percent were in favor, 44 percent said “no,” with independents polling slightly higher in the direction of “yes.”
Notice that he is pointing out that despite some polls that find majorities that oppose last year's health care law, you find majority support when you reframe the question. So what credence ought we give polls?

On a related point. In a response to criticism that Republicans are offering no alternatives to the existing law, they are holding various committee hearings to develop those alternatives.

What Really Happened to 15 Million Jobs?

From The Atlantic. Economists still don't really know why we lost so many jobs. It wasn't just the recession.

- and if that's not enough ...

The Texas Senate Retains the 2/3rds Rule

From the Texas Tribune:

In a party-line vote, the Texas Senate adopted its rules today without making any changes to the rule that requires the consent of two-thirds of the body in order to bring an issue to the floor. Of course, no change means that controversial legislation on voter ID — as it was last session — is exempt.


This has been controversial because though Republicans have a comfortable majority in the Senate, they don't have a 2/3rds majority. Democrats still have the ability to stop legislation, except now for Voter ID legislation.

Herding Cats - 2011

I've mentioned in class that one of the items I plan to follow is how well Speaker Boehner - who leads the Republican Party in the House - can keep the Republicans (the Republican Conference) cohesive. Perhaps these stories are premature, but they suggest that its been tough already. The more conservative members of the party want to push for far more drastic cuts than Boehner has proposed.

- NYT.
- TPM Muckraker: Boehner may be "squeamish" on budget cuts.

Boehner may be concerned that if the electorate (more accurately moderates) finds out what exactly Republicans want to cut (NASA, highways, etc...) , they may decide that they like those things and turn on the party in 2012. It's one thing to think of budget cuts and smaller government in the abstract, its another to think of it in terms of losing an actual program that provides a tangible benefit.

We're already dealing with a negative response to the proposed budget in Texas. It turns out people like spending on education and health services. We'll see how much as the session proceeds.

It Could Happen, and Still be Constitutional.

Here's a list of eight crazy things that could happen and be perfectly constitutional. One is electing a non-member Speaker of the House. Again, enjoy.

Neat things to consider for both 2301 and 2302.

The Deputy Speaker in the House of Commons Keeps Order

Enjoy.

Does Growing Income and Wealth Inequality Threaten the Republic?

Yes and no according to this author:

Here's the argument that it does not:

In terms of immediate political stability, there is less to the income inequality issue than meets the eye. Most analyses of income inequality neglect two major points. First, the inequality of personal well-being is sharply down over the past hundred years and perhaps over the past twenty years as well. Bill Gates is much, much richer than I am, yet it is not obvious that he is much happier if, indeed, he is happier at all. I have access to penicillin, air travel, good cheap food, the Internet and virtually all of the technical innovations that Gates does. Like the vast majority of Americans, I have access to some important new pharmaceuticals, such as statins to protect against heart disease. To be sure, Gates receives the very best care from the world’s top doctors, but our health outcomes are in the same ballpark. I don’t have a private jet or take luxury vacations, and—I think it is fair to say—my house is much smaller than his. I can’t meet with the world’s elite on demand. Still, by broad historical standards, what I share with Bill Gates is far more significant than what I don’t share with him.

Compare these circumstances to those of 1911, a century ago. Even in the wealthier countries, the average person had little formal education, worked six days a week or more, often at hard physical labor, never took vacations, and could not access most of the world’s culture. The living standards of Carnegie and Rockefeller towered above those of typical Americans, not just in terms of money but also in terms of comfort.
Here's the argument that it does:

If we are looking for objectionable problems in the top 1 percent of income earners, much of it boils down to finance and activities related to financial markets. And to be sure, the high incomes in finance should give us all pause.

The first factor driving high returns is sometimes called by practitioners “going short on volatility.” Sometimes it is called “negative skewness.” In plain English, this means that some investors opt for a strategy of betting against big, unexpected moves in market prices. Most of the time investors will do well by this strategy, since big, unexpected moves are outliers by definition. Traders will earn above-average returns in good times. In bad times they won’t suffer fully when catastrophic returns come in, as sooner or later is bound to happen, because the downside of these bets is partly socialized onto the Treasury, the Federal Reserve and, of course, the taxpayers and the unemployed.
In short, the financial sector has increased its political power over the past decades and is using this to pursue policies that advantage them at the expense of financial stability. Their interests lie in taking advantage of instability.

It's worth a close read.

Will States be Allowed to go Bankrupt?

Something for 2301s especially to chew on, especially as we begin to discuss the Constitution. This is a consequence of both the recent economic downturn and the bloated pension plans some states have designed for state workers. The question now is how states can deal with the position this has placed them in. It raises interesting constitutional questions.

From the NYT:

Policy makers are working behind the scenes to come up with a way to let states declare bankruptcy and get out from under crushing debts, including the pensions they have promised to retired public workers.

Unlike cities, the states are barred from seeking protection in federal bankruptcy court. Any effort to change that status would have to clear high constitutional hurdles because the states are considered sovereign.

But proponents say some states are so burdened that the only feasible way out may be bankruptcy, giving Illinois, for example, the opportunity to do what General Motors did with the federal government’s aid.

Obama's Numbers Rise

This isn't a big surprise. Presidential poll numbers tend to increase after a tragedy, especially one that requires a presidential address. One of the unofficial functions of presidents is to be mourner-in-chief.

Might this have an impact on the next two years?

Revolving Door: Former Members of the 111th Congress

From OpenSecrets.Org, a page devoted to determining what careers former members of the 111th Congress are pursuing. It's worth looking at those who are now working with organizations whose interests they developed expertise on while in Congress.

The President as Head of State

Obama performs a constitutional diplomatic duty.

Who's in and who's out at the official state dinner for China.

Gearing for the 2012 Presidential Race

The NYT reports that Obama is setting up his campaign operation:

President Obama will close the office of political affairs at the White House, aides said,restructuring his organization to prepare for his re-election campaign, which is to start building a fund-raising and grassroots operation based in Chicago by late March.

Mr. Obama has signed off on the plan to set up his campaign headquarters away from Washington, a first for a modern-day presidential re-election campaign. To avoid turf battles, chaotic communications and duplicated efforts, aides said, a significant realignment is underway in the West Wing, with the duties of the political office being taken up by the Democratic National Committee.

The president intends to formally declare his candidacy in about two months by filing papers with the Federal Election Commission, aides said. That step would allow him to start raising money and hiring a team of advisers, whose job it would be to make him the second Democrat since Franklin Delano Roosevelt to be elected twice to the White House.
The New Republic reports that Republican candidates are late getting started, and better get moving:

The Republican Party—and indeed much of the media establishment—is living in a fantasy world when it comes to 2012. To hear most of the pundits and soothsayers tell it, the presidential nominating contest is still a long way off. The GOP heavies we’ve been talking about since 2008, such as Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin, and Tim Pawlenty, are all terribly flawed: Mitt’s got his RomneyCare; Newt has been a national pariah; Huck has money problems; Palin is toxic outside her base; and T-Paw induces narcolepsy. But the entire presidential field will change, we are told, when a white knight (possibly handsome, possibly not), comes riding in to save the day. Everything will be different when Mitch Daniels enters the race, the argument goes. You’ll stop scoffing when Mike Pence gets here!

To which I say, look at the calendar. The truth is that if the Republicans’ Galahad is going to save the day, he needs to announce before midnight, and midnight is fast approaching. As Dave Weigel recently pointed out, at this point four years ago, 15 would-be presidents (eight Republicans, seven Democrats) had launched exploratory committees or announced candidacies. And eight years ago, by this time, five Democrats—all of the major candidates other than Wesley Clark—had at least formed exploratory committees, and two had formally announced. Today, in contrast, only the radio talk-show host Herman Cain has launched an exploratory committee. All of the other potential candidacies remain notional and virtual, built around leadership PACs, buzz-generating book tours, and flashy travel announcements.

Community College's Fight Back, Part 2

Just to confuse you, community college's themselves are represented by the Texas Association of Community Colleges, TACC. Think of TCCTA as a bunch of cc instructors and TACC as a bunch of CC presidents. Their interests don't always complement each other. In this case they do. The TACC has also issued a statement on the budget.

The question will be whether their response will be coordinated with TCCTA's and other institutions, or whether internal conflicts will weaken the response. To give you an idea of how conflicts can weaken group responses, consider this. Isn't it, in a sense, good news for ACC if Brazosport College is not longer funded and potentially closed? Their students will most likely come here. It improves our numbers. Just sayin' ....  

(Austin, Texas) Today the Texas House of Representatives released HB1 and it is evident that community colleges were sacrificed to the state’s budget deficit. At a time of historic student enrollment growth the total cut to community colleges exceeds $767 million. This amount is comprised of $142 million in formula funding cuts from the last budget cycle, $342 million in student enrollment growth not funded, and $283 million reduction in employee group health insurance. These reductions will seriously impact the state’s ability to grow its economy as fewer Texans receive training and educational opportunities at community colleges across the state.

HB1 would close four community colleges. Brazosport College, Frank Phillips College, Ranger College, and Odessa College would all suffer the complete removal of state support. This will effectively end these colleges as viable institutions in their communities. The outcome of this action would be the end of educational opportunities for the more than 12,000 students served by these colleges. The closing of these colleges will mean no dual credit courses for high school juniors and seniors, the closing of workforce programs to educate and train students for industry, and the end of arts and community outreach programs.

TACC Chair, Dr. Richard Rhodes said, “This budget makes it clear that there is no longer a state policy when it comes to community colleges. If a college grows and educates more students the state does not live up to its commitment by funding growth. However, if a college is perceived by state bureaucrats as somehow growing too slowly, the state will cut all of an institution’s funding.” He added, “Community colleges are the future of Texas but this budget proposal seriously reduces our ability to meet the needs of our local communities.”

Community colleges in Texas are drivers of the state’s economy accounting for $1.6 billion of the state’s economy each year. “With this level of formula funding cuts, the creation of a $283 million unfunded employee health insurance cost, and the closure of four colleges, Texas will suffer.” said Dr. Rey Garcia, TACC President. “Communities across Texas will face smaller colleges, offering fewer courses, with fewer support services, to fewer students” he continued.

Community colleges are the largest sector of higher education in Texas enrolling over 735,000 students this past fall. Over the past five years enrollment in community colleges has increased 34% or 187,000 students. Over 70% of all freshman in Texas are enrolled at a community college.

Community College's Fight Back

It might be a useful exercise to follow how community colleges' react to the Legislative Budget Board's proposed budget -- remember that this is not a final budget. The legislature will haggle over this all spring and probably over the summer. CHanges in the budget will tell alot about which groups in Texas are powerful and which are not.

Community college instructors are represented by a professional organization (which we have the option to join) called the the Texas Community College Teacher's Association, TCCTA. The organizations legislative affairs are overseen by a lobbysist named Beamon Floyd, who also represents the insurance industry in the state. I've heard him speak and he is an articulate defender of the lobbying profession and reminds audiences of its constitutional roots.

Here is the full text of TCCTA's response to the proposed budget:

Dear Colleague,

The preliminary budget for the next biennium was filed in the House of Representatives today (Wednesday), with severe cuts to the state's community colleges. The proposed budget includes a seven percent cut in formula funding, as well as a 25 percent funding cut in the "hold harmless" for small schools.

The budget also proposes the shuttering of four community colleges—Brazosport College, Frank Phillips College, Odessa College, and Ranger College. Rep. Jim Pitts, the chair of the House Committee on Appropriations, explained this morning (Wednesday) that these institutions were chosen on the basis of enrollment growth, compared to other two-year colleges around the state.

Another significant element of the proposed budget is an 82 percent decrease in funding for community college health benefits, which will push the burden for these services to the colleges, themselves.

In all, funding cuts for community colleges under this proposal total approximately $266 million.

During discussion in the House chamber, it was emphasized repeatedly that this budget is a preliminary document and will see significant changes before a final budget is adopted. Indeed, we have already observed bipartisan questioning of its provisions and "push back" from members of both parties.

It will be very important in the coming days that legislators hear from their constituents so they can understand the full impact these cuts would have on their communities. TCCTA members are urged to engage in this process, by talking with peers about these developments, and reading the TCCTA Blog to keep updated.

Members who contact their representatives should be polite but firm and clear about how this issue will affect them, their students, and their institutions ( see the TCCTA Guide to Political Participation). It is our belief that the proposed cuts, while having a serious impact on our ability to educate our students, will do very little to solve the budget crisis the state finds itself in. The imbalance between the serious consequences of the cuts, measured against any possible savings, should be pointed out to legislators.

In the several conversations we have had with legislators, it is clear that they perceive this only as a starting point, and that they are open to discussing other options. TCCTA is working diligently to learn more about the intentions of budget planners and make clear to them the concerns of our members.

We will continue to update members as information becomes available. Members are encouraged to watch the TCCTA blog closely, and attend the Legislative Update Session at the TCCTA convention in San Antonio next week, featuring the Association's lobbyist, Beaman Floyd.
To aid you in your communication, the TCCTA Legislative Program, Talking Points and Bill Tracking are available on our Web site, at http://www.tccta.org/legis/

Fred Newbury, 
TCCTA President
Richard Moore, 
Executive Director

Other organizations are certainly doing the same. I'll post links to their activities. This is a perfect demonstration of lobbying - the right to petition - in action. I'll try to make the most of it.

- TCCTA: Proposed Budget Cuts Detailed.

Are Corporations Persons? ctd...

From the NYT:

The claim that corporations have personal privacy rights met with widespread skepticism on Wednesday during a lively Supreme Court argument.

A year ago, the court ruled in the Citizens United decision that corporations and unions had a First Amendment right to spend money in candidate elections. But that decision, which involved a question of constitutional law, did not come up at the argument on Wednesday, which considered the quite different issue of what Congress meant when it exempted some files from disclosure under the Freedom of Information Act.

The exemption at issue in the case, Federal Communications Commission v. AT&T Inc., No. 09-1279, protects information that “could reasonably be expected to constitute an unwarranted invasion of personal privacy.”

AT&T invoked the exemption in seeking to block the release of documents it had provided to the F.C.C., which conducted an investigation into claims of overcharges by the company in a program to provide equipment and services to schools. The documents were sought by a trade association representing some of the company’s competitors.

The United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit, in Philadelphia, had ruled for the company, relying in part on a definition of “person” in the law that included corporations.

But several justices said it was too much of a leap to go from saying that corporations might be “persons” for some purposes to saying that their “personal privacy” could be invaded.
.....

Legislative Budget Board Submits Proposed Budget

It's $13 billion smaller than the previous budget and includes significant cuts to public education in state. It proposes no longer funding four community colleges including Brazosport College.

- The LBB proposal.
- HB 1.

Obama Asks for Review of Rules Stifling Jobs

From the NYT:

President Obama on Tuesday ordered “a governmentwide review” of federal regulations to root out those “that stifle job creation and make our economy less competitive,” but he exempted many agencies that most vex corporate America. The immediate effect is likely to be more political than substantive.

The action was the latest in a series by Mr. Obama to claim the ideological center, and in particular to signal to businesses that he wants to work more closely with them on policies that could help create jobs.

Mr. Obama’s executive order would not apply to federal agencies created to be largely independent of the White House and Congress. That includes those, like the Securities and Exchange Commission and Federal Reserve, which currently are writing new rules for banks and other institutions that are mandated by the new law aimed at preventing another financial crisis. And it includes others like the Federal Communications Commission that have sway over large sectors of the economy.

Are Weak Unions the Reason that So Many Jobs Have Been Lost and Are Slow to Return?

In 2301, we will be discussing Federalist #10 soon enough along with the ongoing conflict between factions in society. Each interest in society, it is assumed, forms a groups - a faction - to fight for its interests. But some are more able to do this effectively than other a case in point recently has been labor unions.

Here's an argument that the decreasing power of labor in the US helps explain why unemployment is higher in the United States than in other countries. Here's a qualifier.

And for good measure, is American Exceptionalism a myth?

A Majority, If They Can Keep It

This is quite a long article, but it's an interesting take on the ideological nature of the American public. The author -- who is affiliated with the conservative think tank The American Enterprise Institute -- says that Americans (in the aggregate I suppose) are not conservative, but they are "anti-liberal." This is the same as saying that the public -- as opposed to political leaders - -does not fall neatly into little ideological camps.

Recent shifts in electoral results are driven by the changing affiliations of the white, non-college educated, working class. Here's an extended clip that will help us in 2301 when we look at political parties:

. . . working-class voters do not fit neatly into the left-right divide that characterizes debates between party elites: These voters favor low taxes and balanced budgets, but support government welfare-state programs like public education and state-sponsored retirement benefits. They are economically populist, and suspicious of free trade and high finance. They are culturally orthodox but morally moderate, meaning that, while they often hold conservative views regarding social issues, they do not think that debates about social issues will affect their own lives very much. They are patriotic and supportive of the military, but are as suspicious of "big military" as they are of "big government" and "big business."

This last point, the fear of "big" anything, gets to the heart of the working-class identity. Working-class voters are very aware of their position in national economic and social life. Muttart notes that they do not aspire to be "Type A business owners"; they want to spend time with their families, go to work, and do what is asked of them. They value structure and stability. They are hopeful for their economic future, but fearful it could all be lost. They value programs that can protect them against losing everything they have, and also those that can help their children achieve more than they ever had.

They also crave respect. In the 1930s — when members of the working class were frequently laid off or forced to work in unhealthy settings — they felt business owners did not value them as human beings; they therefore turned to labor unions and government for help. Today, the working class continues to fear that management does not respect them. But they believe that intellectuals, public elites, and government bureaucrats disdain them and their aspirations, too.

The working class's ambiguous political status becomes easier to understand once we compare these beliefs and views to those of the two party bases. White working-class voters do not like modern liberal Democrats, whose tax-and-spend policies hamper their ability to prosper. Indeed, polls of American white working-class voters show that, by nearly a two-to-one margin, they believe in the free market and think more government intervention in the economy is not in their interest. They also think liberals show disrespect for their beliefs and priorities and focus on issues of more concern to educated elites — such as cap-and-trade — than on issues closer to the hearts of the working class.

But white working-class voters also have problems with what they take to be conservative ideas. They do not want to see entitlements and education cut for the sake of being cut; they do not believe these programs are inconsistent with modern American freedom. Nor do they trust that conservatives understand the working class's precarious economic perch. They fear the consequences of an untrammeled market and wonder, as they have since the Great Depression, if conservatives really have their best interests at heart. To put it simply: Working-class voters believe in capitalism, but they also believe in the importance of a social safety net.
...

Regarding Roger Ailes

Esquire Magazine has published a profile of Fox News President Roger Ailes. Click here for links to it and the various takes on the profile itself.

Senile Judges . . .

. . . an unforeseen consequence of lifetime tenure on the judiciary. How do you persuade a senile federal judge to retire?

Life tenure, intended to foster judicial independence, has been a unique feature of the federal bench since the Constitution was ratified in 1789. Back then, the average American lived to be about 40 and the framers didn't express much worry about senile judges. "A superannuated bench," Alexander Hamilton said, is an "imaginary danger."

No longer. Today, aging and dementia are the flip side of life tenure, with more and more judges staying on the bench into extreme old age. About 12 percent of the nation's 1,200 sitting federal district and circuit judges are 80 years or older, according to a 2010 survey conducted by ProPublica. Eleven federal judges over the age of 90 are hearing cases—compared with four just 20 years ago. (One judge, a Kansan appointed by President John F. Kennedy, is over 100.) The share of octogenarians and nonagenarians on the federal bench has doubled in the past 20 years. The demographics of the federal bench have no analogue on the state courts, where judges mostly occupy their office for a term of fixed years and generally have mandatory retirement ages, often in their 60s or 70s.

TV News Trust Poll

From Public Policy Polling:

PPP's annual look at the public's trust in various TV news outlets finds that Fox News' credibility is on the decline, that the traditional networks are seeing an up tick in their numbers, and that PBS is at the top of the heap.

Here's how they stack up from highest net trust to worst:


Outlet - Trust/Distrust

PBS - 50/30
NBC - 41/41
CNN - 40/43
Fox News - 42/46
CBS - 36/43
ABC - 35/43

Enthusiasm Gap Shifts

It's not too early to begin discussing the 2012 elections -- which is disappointing news for sane people. An early poll points outs a predictable shift in levels of enthusiasm based on partisanship. I say predictable because now that Republicans control the House, and are safe bets to take over the Senate in 2012, Democrats who sat out the midterms, see a reason to participate now.

From  Public Policy Polling:

If I had to name the two biggest factors that cost Democrats the 2010 election cycle it would be 2 e's- economy and enthusiasm. A huge part of the party's problem was the bad economy, which drove independent voters strongly toward GOP candidates. But just as important was the enthusiasm gap and the fact that Republicans turned out at a much higher rate than Democrats in almost every state in the country.

I don't know where the economy's going to be 22 months from now but our newest weekly national survey for Daily Kos finds that the enthusiasm problem for Democrats is likely to be quickly a thing of the past.

85% of Democrats in the country are either 'very excited' or 'somewhat excited' about voting in the Presidential election next year, actually slightly higher than the 82% of Republicans. There are more Republicans who are 'very excited'- 62% to the Democrats' 57%, but 'somewhat excited' voters are going to come out the vast majority of the time. The ones you need to worry about are the 'not excited' voters- and 18% of Republicans and 16% of Democrats fall into that category, virtually indistinguishable.

One danger the Republican Party could fall into is if they ignore the Tea Party members to the point that see no reason to continue to identify with the party, and possibly punish the party by running an independent candidate.

Repeal of Health Care Bill Passes House

Details here. The vote - almost all party line - was 236 - 181.

Here are some random posts on the general topic:

- Story in the Washington Post.
- Poll results seem to vary depending on how questions are posed.
- Opinion tend to be nuanced.
- Debate still lingers on what exactly is in the bill.

The Debt Ceiling

We need to catch up on the looming controversy concerning whether Congress should raise the nation's debt ceiling, and what the consequences would be if it is not raised.

To begin, here's analysis of what our options are if the ceiling is not raised.

If Tunisia Becomes a Democracy, Will Other Arab Countries Follow?

Here's an argument that they will not, and it touches on what factors cause countries to become democratic:

How to explain the Tunisian revolution? By consulting Samuel Huntington—not the Huntington of Clash of Civilizations fame, but the author of The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century, published in 1991. His model is too complex to be laid out here in all of its subtleties. But the basic message, to borrow from Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign, is: “It’s the economy, stupid!” We should also add education, urbanization, and globalization—all those items that go into the tale “The Making of a Middle Class.” Tunisia has it all, and that is why it now sticks out like a bloody thumb from the rest of the Arab world, that vast arc from Rabat to Damascus where politics remains frozen, where the birth rate keeps dwarfing economic growth, and where King or Colonel is despotism’s name.

The Tunisian revolt fits Huntington’s model to a T. Looking at the third wave of democratization between 1974 and 1989, he found that rising wealth spells falling tyrants. How much money did it take? A per-capita income between $1,000 and $3,000, which would now be adjusted for inflation. Of the non-democracies which moved into that range in the 1970s and 1980s, three-quarters got rid of their overlords.

. . . why are the other Arab and Maghreb African countries—police states all—proving so immune to regime change (unless there is a little help from the U.S. military, as in Iraq)? Because they don’t make Huntington’s cut.

Not counting the petro-potentates (more about them later) and strife-torn Lebanon, Tunisia is the richest of them all. Its per-capita income is almost twice as high as neighboring Morocco, and it is ahead of Egypt, Jordan, and Syria by similar margins. The country is more urbanized (67 percent of the populace) than either Morocco (56 percent) or Egypt, (43 percent). Tunisia is also more educated: Its literacy is a bit higher than Egypt’s and a lot higher than Morocco’s, and it spends much more on education—7.2 percent of GDP, while Egypt devotes about half as much, and Morocco comes in at just 5.7 percent.

. . . If you are poor, you have neither the time nor the energy to engage in politics. If you are not educated, you lack the cultural skills to articulate your demands—to agitate and organize. And, if you are poor, uneducated, and thus isolated, as much of the Arab world is, then you have no benchmark against which to measure your misery. Sociologists call this the “demonstration effect.”

So don’t count on a Tunisian “demonstration effect” to set the rest of the Arab world aflame.

A Dictator Returns to Haiti

From the NYT:

Haiti’s political crisis took a stunning turn on Sunday when Jean-Claude Duvalier, the dictator known as Baby Doc who was overthrown in 1986, arrived unexpectedly in the capital from exile in France.

Here's more. In 2301 we mentioned that populations sometimes support autocratic rule when the alternative is chaos -- as seems to be the case since the earthquake. Perhaps that's what's going on here. Click here for an idea of the violence they used to maintain power.

The Constitution, the House and Gifford's Seat

If Gifford is incapacitated for a prolonged period of time, can she be removed from office and replaced? The Constitution does not allow for this, but Arizona has a law stating that it can.

Abolitionists: The Lunatics of the 1850s

Maybe we shouldn't sell nutbags short. And maybe compromise is overrated.

An Emerging Class War?

As we approach Federalist #10, and a discussion of the conflict between various interests in society, its worth looking at comments regarding the increasing gap between the haves and have-nots in American society. The middle class seems to be losing out the most. Will we see increased conflicxt as time progresses?

The U.S.-based CEO of one of the world’s largest hedge funds told me that his firm’s investment committee often discusses the question of who wins and who loses in today’s economy. In a recent internal debate, he said, one of his senior colleagues had argued that the hollowing-out of the American middle class didn’t really matter. . . . (emphasis added)

I heard a similar sentiment from the Taiwanese-born, 30-something CFO of a U.S. Internet company. A gentle, unpretentious man who went from public school to Harvard, he’s nonetheless not terribly sympathetic to the complaints of the American middle class. “We demand a higher paycheck than the rest of the world,” he told me. “So if you’re going to demand 10 times the paycheck, you need to deliver 10 times the value. It sounds harsh, but maybe people in the middle class need to decide to take a pay cut.”

Tolerance in Texas

Texas ranks #29 on tolerance rating.

States' Rights and Slavery

Here's a fun read regarding some of the myths regarding the Civil War. As we know, some argue that it was all about states' rights. But the author differs:

South Carolina was further upset that New York no longer allowed "slavery transit." In the past, if Charleston gentry wanted to spend August in the Hamptons, they could bring their cook along. No longer -- and South Carolina's delegates were outraged. In addition, they objected that New England states let black men vote and tolerated abolitionist societies. According to South Carolina, states should not have the right to let their citizens assemble and speak freely when what they said threatened slavery.

Other seceding states echoed South Carolina. "Our position is thoroughly identified with the institution of slavery -- the greatest material interest of the world," proclaimed Mississippi in its own secession declaration, passed Jan. 9, 1861. "Its labor supplies the product which constitutes by far the largest and most important portions of the commerce of the earth. . . . A blow at slavery is a blow at commerce and civilization."

The South's opposition to states' rights is not surprising. Until the Civil War, Southern presidents and lawmakers had dominated the federal government. The people in power in Washington always oppose states' rights. Doing so preserves their own.
Apparently states rights only mattered if a state supported slavery, not if it opposed it.

Does the Constitution Shield Members of Congress From Criminal Investigations?

According to the Washington Post, that may be the consequence of recent readings of the clause in the Constituton that states that members cannot be questioned in other places for things they say on the floor of Congress and are privileged from arrest when going to and from Congress.

Looking Ahead -- Week Two's Assessment

Tips for the second week's assessments:

2301

- I have five questions about different aspects of the Declaration of Independence, so be very familiar with the argument it makes.
- Understand the arguments for and against divine right. Understand the argument in favor of natural rights, and John Locke's theories about government.
- There are four questions about the English Bill of Rights. Know what it is, what it contains, and what impact it had on the American governing system.
- There will be four questions on Magna Carta. As with the English Bill of Rights. Know what it is, what it contains, and what impact it had on the American governing system.
- I have one question on the Stuarts, and one question on Thomas Hobbes.

2302

- What content in the Declaration of Independence related to legislative power? Why?
- What was the Petition of Right? What was it intended to do? What were the consequences of it?
- What was the design of the Congress under the Articles of Confederation?
- What impact did the Magna Carta have on the development of legislative power in Britain?
- What impact did the English (British) Bill of Rights have on the development of legislative power in Britain? What specific limitations did it place on the monarch?
- What attitude did the Stuarts have about legislative power?
- Expect ten or so questions about the basic terminology and design of legislative institutions in the U.S. and Texas.

Sanctuary Cities

In his address last week before the legislature, Governor Perry called out "sanctuary cities" and stated that he will work to abolish them. In essence, he is suggesting the local law enforcement officers enforce national immigration laws, in addition to local and state legislation. This obviously adds to their workload, and in a budget cutting environment, this may prove unpopular.

An intrepid student hunted down this LA Times piece detailing the problems associated with the proposal. This is a perfect topic for 2301s upcoming discussion of federalism.

Thanks CR!

The "Wikipedia Revolution" in Tunisia

Democracy may or may not be breaking out in Tunisia, a north African Arab nation judged across the board to be among the world's most repressive, but riots have forced the existing president to resign and flee the country. The president had been in power for over twenty years and was re-elected regularly by very high nargins -- never a sign of a truly competitive system (in 1994 and 1999 he received 99% of the vote). One source has dubbed this the "wikileaks revolution" because:

US diplomatic cables released by Wikileaks described Tunisia as a "police state" riddled with corruption, and claimed President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali had lost touch with his people.

It described the president and his siblings as "The Family" - comparing them to a Mafia crime organisation.
Wikileaks also revealed that Ben Ali's wife, Leila, had made huge profits out of building an exclusive school.

One cable was banned in Tunisia, although its contents became widely known.

In it, US ambassador Robert Godec wrote: "Corruption in the inner circle is growing. Even average Tunisians are keenly aware of it, and the chorus of complaints is rising. Tunisians intensely dislike, even hate, first lady Leila Trabelsi and her family. In private, regime opponents mock her."

Social network websites such as Facebook helped spread the comments, to the delight of Tunisians.

For general information about measurements of freedom in countries across the world check these out:

- Freedom House: Freedom in the World 2011.
- Democracy Index.
- Press Freedom Index.

Whether the revolution leads to the establishment of a legitimate democracy or simply another authoritarian regime, or whether it causes other leaders in the region to topple is an open question at this point.

What Constituency do Members of Congress Serve?

This part of David Frum's opinion piece below is worth discussing in class -- both 2301 and 2302. He is discussing the various changes in the political environment which may have lead to the rhetoric that may have led to the Tucson shooting:

More and more of our politicians are self-motivated political entrepreneurs, who raise their money through national networks — and are held to account by those networks. It becomes less important to keep everybody in your district happy than to keep happy the national ideological lobbies that pull members to the left or right.


Note the part I put in bold. Our representatives are apparently no longer "our" representatives, but represent instead broad national ideological movements. We simply vote them into office, we don't influence them.

Is Violent Rhetoric a Threat to the Republic?

An appropriate question considering our 2301 topic this week.

David Frum (former W Bush speechwriter) wonders:

The problem is, rather, the construction of paranoid narratives that might justify violence to a violent-minded person. When scruffy protesters drew swastikas on photographs of President George W. Bush, that was obnoxious. It was not likely to incite anyone. But when eminent persons argued on the public airwaves that the United States had been lied into a frustrating war in Iraq by a cabal of Jewish conspirators? That’s a very different matter.

Likewise, it's grossly ill mannered for a member of the House to shout "You lie!" at a president during a State of the Union address. Yet the republic staggered on somehow. What does do damage to the fabric of democracy is the charge made by prominent conservative broadcasters that the president is deliberately wrecking the U.S. economy to advance his scheme to overthrow the constitution and transform the nation into a Marxist or Leninist or even Maoist tyranny.
Its the opinion leaders more than the general population he suggests, among other things.

Kay Bailey Hutchison will not seek Re-Election

From WaPo:

Texas Republican Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison announced today she will not seek a fourth term, the first incumbent up for reelection in 2012 to retire.

"I am announcing today that I will not be a candidate for re-election in 2012," Hutchison said in a statement released this afternoon. "That should give the people of Texas ample time to consider who my successor will be."

Current Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst, along with Ron Paul and a few others are rumored to be considering a run at the position. This will shuffle the deck for all the positions they will then vacate.

Republican National Committee Selects New Chair

From the NYT:

The Republican National Committee selected a new chairman on Friday, with Reince Priebus of Wisconsin surviving seven contentious rounds of balloting to succeed Michael Steele, who dropped out after the fourth round, as party officials expressed a desire for new leadership to prepare for the 2012 presidential election.
The committee is argued to be in disarray despite the sucess of party candidates in the 2010 election. Their success has been argued to be largely the consequence of outsider groups and the past chairman was argued to have poorly managed the committee's affairs.

While readign the story, I'd like you to focus on how they conducted the election. Repeated ballots until someone got a majority. Little changed until a couple of candidates -- including the ex-chair -- dropped out. As we will see when we discuss elections, different types of elections often produce different winners.

- Wikipedia: Republican National Committee.
- Michael Steele's Ten Biggest Gaffes.

The Limits of National Supremacy

A note on the selective enforcement of prohibition. A certain consequence of our federal design.

The Constitution Protects Incendiary Speech

So says the ACLU:

Banning crosshairs and other imagery in political literature would violate free-speech rights, an ACLU official said Thursday.

The comments from a senior official with the American Civil Liberties Union came in response to a proposal from a Democratic lawmaker to make it illegal to publish literature like the ‘crosshairs’ map Sarah Palin’s PAC published for the 2010 election.

. . . “Under the First Amendment I don't see how you can prevent people from using advertising allusions,” said Macleod-Ball, referring to the use of a bull’s-eyes or crosshair for campaign purposes. “I do not see how you could draw up a statute that would restrict the use of a riflescope or a bull's-eye in a publication.“

Rep. Robert Brady (D-Pa.) told Fox News on Sunday that he will introduce a law that will make it a federal crime to publish images like the ‘crosshairs’ map. Brady made the comments after six people were gunned down in a shooting in Arizona that targeted Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.).

Harris County Commissioner Eversole Accused of Taking Bribes

From the Chron, background on charges brought against a Harris County Commissioner:

Harris County Precinct 4 Commissioner Jerry Eversole pleaded not guilty in federal court Tuesday to felony charges of bribery and filing false income tax returns, denying accusations he had steered lucrative county contracts to a developer who had given him more than $100,000 in cash and gifts over the years.

... The indictment documents what it describes as a series of gifts from Surface to Eversole, including:

· A $63,000 cashier's check that Eversole used to buy land for a new home;

· Nearly $17,000 to pay for landscaping at Eversole's new home;

· A tailored suit that cost more than $1,000;

· Several antique firearms that cost more than $23,000, plus $10,000 to have ivory grips installed on several of Eversole's guns.

· Travel expenses for trips to Las Vegas, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, South Dakota, South Carolina and a Texas golf resort.

· $25,000 in collateral for a bank loan Eversole obtained.

According to the indictment, the two men discussed a plan in 2003 whereby Eversole would resign his seat and secure the appointment of Surface as his replacement so he could run as an incumbent in the next election.

Companies in which Surface had an interest have received several contracts to provide county facilities this decade. The indictment alleges that in June 2006, Eversole moved for consideration and voted to approve spending $4.9 million on a building in which Surface had an interest, despite requests by county staff to take the matter off the agenda if funding had not been authorized.

Here's a question: Where do we draw the line between a bribe and a contribution? 

Regulatory Agencies in The News

From the NYT:

The Environmental Protection Agency revoked the permit for one of the nation’s largest mountaintop-removal coal mining projects on Thursday, saying the mine would have done unacceptable damage to rivers, wildlife and communities in West Virginia. It was the first time the agency had rescinded a valid clean water permit for a coal mine.

Arch Coal’s proposed Spruce No. 1 Mine in Logan County, which would have buried miles of Appalachian streams under millions of tons of residue, has been the subject of controversy and litigation since the first application was filed more than a decade ago. Opposition intensified after the Bush administration approved the mine’s construction in 2007, issuing a permit required under the Clean Water Act.

The boldness of the E.P.A.’s action was striking at a time when the agency faces an increasingly hostile Congress and well-financed business lobbies seeking to limit its regulatory reach. Agency officials said that the coal company was welcome to resubmit a less damaging mining plan, but that law and science demanded the veto of the existing plan.

And, again, from the NYT:

The Securities and Exchange Commission has begun examining the interactions between U.S. financial firms and sovereign wealth funds and whether they may have violated bribery laws, people briefed on the matter said on Thursday.

The S.E.C. is looking into whether these institutions, including banks and private equity firms, violated the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act in their efforts to secure investments from foreign governments’ investment funds.

The S.E.C. sent out letters to several firms recently, though the agency is only in the early stages of its inquiry, these people said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the investigation is confidential. The letters asked the firms to preserve documents.

A spokesman for the S.E.C. declined to comment.

At the heart of the inquiry are the huge investments made by sovereign wealth


funds into American financial firms in recent years, many struckjust as a financial crisis began to snowball. Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch all sought capital injections from these government investment funds, raising billions of dollars in capital to shore up their balance sheets.