Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Will members of the House of Representatives have an easier time winning the presidency?

Only James Garfield has done it, and factors associated with the House - where people are elected from small local districts - seem to make it very difficult for someone to win a national office. Factors might have changed however, perhaps they can now:

. . . we should expect Representatives to play larger roles in future presidential campaigns because many of the barriers that once existed for Representatives to mount legitimate campaigns for president no longer exist. And this is particularly true on the Republican side. Between Fox News, conservative talk radio, and the internet, it’s not hard for the conservative media machine to make a rock star out of anyone.

. . . The intensely partisan tone in politics will continue to boost Representatives running for President. House members are often more radical than Senators because House members only have to appeal to voters in their districts. These more radical House members, who might never be able to win statewide office, like Bachmann, have a real advantage in primary contests where Republican primary voters are skewed to the far right of the Republican Party. Even though they don’t appeal to a whole state, they have a chance at winning the nomination just by appealing to conservative Republicans.

Citizens United is also easing the Representatives’ path to the nomination. They no longer need a dedicated state operation or even money from voters; as long as they appeal to the SuperPACs pouring money into campaigns, a history of building donor support becomes less important.
Not everyone is convinced.