Charlie Cook thinks so. This is due to the increased strength of conservatives within the party:
Republicans should be concerned that Mitt Romney’s numbers among
independents have been tanking in recent weeks; he went from
double-digit leads over Obama in some polls, including one by the Pew
Research Center, to a 9-point deficit. He is considered the “most
electable” Republican. If other GOP contenders have equally dismal or
worse approval numbers among independents, you have to wonder whether
this could end up as a choice election, with Republicans coming out on
the losing end.
It is becoming quite clear that the conservative
base of the Republican Party is driving the car. These voters prefer
someone from the pull-no-punches brand of conservatism that created the
tea party movement in 2009 and handed Republicans their House majority
in 2010. It’s certainly the GOP’s right and choice to do that. The
calendar, though, says 2012. The mood of the broader electorate—and,
specifically, independents—appears to be very different. If you see any
of Obama’s advisers looking bruised from head to toe, it might be from
pinching themselves in disbelief.
