Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Why did the Fed raise the Federal Funds Rate?

It appears they believe the economy has recovered to the point where it is warranted. There is political debate about whether this is correct, but the Fed issued a statements explaining their reasoning. There appears to be a concern that the current trajectory of the economy might lead to inflation - over 2% - down the road. The increase is an early adjustment to ensure that does not occur.

- Click here for the statement.

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing at solid rates in recent months, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft. A range of recent labor market indicators, including ongoing job gains and declining unemployment, shows further improvement and confirms that underutilization of labor resources has diminished appreciably since early this year. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; some survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have edged down.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will continue to expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will continue to strengthen. Overall, taking into account domestic and international developments, the Committee sees the risks to the outlook for both economic activity and the labor market as balanced. Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.
The Committee judges that there has been considerable improvement in labor market conditions this year, and it is reasonably confident that inflation will rise, over the medium term, to its 2 percent objective. Given the economic outlook, and recognizing the time it takes for policy actions to affect future economic outcomes, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative after this increase, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

For commentary:

- CNBC: FED RAISES RATES BY 25 BASIS POINTS, FIRST SINCE 2006.
- Market Watch: OK, the Fed’s raised interest rates — now what?
- Nerd Wallet: Federal Funds Rate: What Rising Interest Rates Mean for You.
- Wall Street Journal: Fed Plans to Signal Gradual, Cautious Path on Rate Hikes.